Tropical Rains For Texas Coast, South Florida, Northeast Cooldown Late Next Week

Written by on July 5, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

The heavy soaking rains continue over the Florida Panhandle, a large portion of Alabama, west, central Georgia up the spine of the Appalachians. There is a weak surface feature which is helping focusing the moisture and so an additional 8+ inches is expected over the same areas which have picked up 5-10+ inches of rain in the last 48 hours, so the flood threat continues to be aggravated to say the least. It’s this squeeze play between the westward backing Bermuda high and the trough which has been producing unusually cool, dry conditions into Texas.

Here’s the surface chart off the ECMWF for this evening and note the amount of liquid being funnelled due north.

The pattern eventually quietens down this weekend as a new system enters the Pac Northwest, which will ultimately change the shape of the upper pattern across the Lower 48.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The overall setup as we progress through the weekend and into next week becomes rather benign, remaining hot and steamy from Richmond to Boston but even here, the heat and humidity is living on borrowed time as a trough eventually drops down out of Canada mid to late next week.

I’m seeing in tonight’s charts, moisture is on the increase along the Upper Texas coast as a disturbance tracks WNW over the northern Gulf over the next 72 hours, so expect heavy rains and potentially drenching thunderstorms into Galveston and Houston in coming days.

Here’s the surface chart by Sunday and note the moisture pouring towards the Upper Texas coast via an east-west disturbance.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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As for next week. The model’s picking up on a feature spreading across South, central Florida. Though development isn’t expected, a lot of rain can be expected mid next week across the Sunshine State before it’s seen dissipating over the Gulf.

Here it is crossing S Fla next Wed.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Note the rather strong looking upper low sliding across the Northern tier. This may present a severe threat as well as soaking rain to the Ohio Valley late next week. It will also present a cool down and significant humidity drop for the Northeast late week and after a brief break from the heavy rains in the Southeast. Rains refocus across the saturated areas from Louisiana to North Carolina as the trough digs down, pulling warm, moist air north from the Gulf.

Here’s the 500mb and surface charts for late next week.

500mb at 198 (next Fri)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Surface

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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