July 2013 UK Hot Spell Could Linger Into Mid-Month, Glance At August

Written by on July 5, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Today’s sunshine and warmth is something we can all get use to with little change in our developing pattern all the way through till at least next weekend. The latest models do suggest a frontal boundary sits close to the Scottish North Coast which could suggest cloudier, cooler conditions across the Highlands at times early next week as well as this weekend but this influence should be NORTH of the Central Lowlands.

Expect the heat to build sharply through the weekend into next week.

I expect the temperature profile to go from 26C today to 28 Saturday, 30 Sunday and possibly 33 either Monday or Tuesday over Southeast England. Widely temperatures by day will reach the low to mid-20s away from the coast where an onshore sea breeze will keep coastal areas cool at 17C. Nights will become increasing warm through the weekend and especially into early next week with lows widely holding at 16-20C with some city centres perhaps holding at 21C. These warm nights mean a good base for hot daytime conditions.

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Here’s the latest ECMWF total precipitation forecast for the next 168 hrs.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Earlier runs of the ECMWF suggested a possible break by next Friday but now, there is no such break with the warmth and sunshine lasting now till at least Monday 15th. This could still change. Interestingly the NAO according to the GFS is set to go negative, yet there is no evidence to support this through the next 10 days according to the ECMWF. A negative NAO would indeed suggest height rises over the N Atlantic and a return to a trough over the UK.

Here’s a near perfect surface chart for Monday. Surface pressure of 1032mb covering the UK and Ireland with a centre of 1036 near to the east.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

To reiterate, Scotland will have an iffy weekend with cloud and light rain or drizzle, mainly in the Highlands but a boundary sitting draped across the country Sunday may present a slight spoiler but this should be temporary with pretty much ALL of next week seeing 21-25C.

The Midlands will see day after day of sunshine and highs of 23-26C widely. The South sunshine and 24-28C widely. Interior parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland 22-24, locally 27C and Wales. Parts of the east may approach 29C.

Another excellent looking surface chart for Thursday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

While the CFSv2 has went away from the ‘warmer than normal’ July over the UK and Ireland and continues to show well below normal precip and given the outlook for the next 7-10 days, I would be very surprised if this month isn’t above normal.

euPrecMonInd1

As for August, well the CFSv2, while not going for a particularly wet month, does have a less dry look compared to July with above normal precip expected over Ireland.

euPrecMonInd2
I would not be surprised if August is quite different to July with more in the way of wet weather but whether it’s a cool month, well I wouldn’t be too quick to jump to that theory.

More on August in coming days.

Predicting the timing of breakdowns following prolonged warm, settled spells is always very tricky and right now, only time will tell.
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