Surface Pressure Soars To 1036mb/Upper Heights To 588dc Over UK = 30-33°C Next Week!

Written by on July 4, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The last fronts will clear UK airspace over the next 24 hours and heights on the rear will rapidly rise tomorrow into the weekend. The northern extension of a sprawling Azores ridge which will build and ultimately park over Ireland and the entire UK looks impressive on all models and will remain dominant throughout next week. The GFS supports a surface high of 1032 to 1036mb while an upper ridge on top has thickness values soaring to an impressive 588dc. What that means is there’s a large bubble of very warm air which will climb well into our mid and upper atmosphere. That means a large depth of sinking and warm enough 500mb temperatures to support a warm ‘cap’ and maximum. Large scale sinking dries, compresses and heats the air and it descends, supressing cloud formation and producing maximum surface heating. The greater the depth of sinking, the warmer the surface temperatures will get.

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Now this is where the repeated talk of soil moisture through spring comes in.. Had the soils been very wet. Not only would this ridge not be as strong but a lot of the sun’s energy would have went into evaporating the moisture being dawn up from the ground to air but because the ground is ‘dry enough’, it will just take a couple of days of warm sun to allow top soils to dry and then more solar energy can go into heating, not evaporating.

Source: Telegraph

Source: Telegraph

I see NO break through at least next Friday and that means day after day of widespread temperatures inland of 22-26C with pockets of 29-32C likely early and mid next week.

Keep in mind that as this system sits overhead for a solid 5-7 days, while it warms to perhaps 29 or 30C as early as Sunday, I expect Monday and Tuesday to be warmer with low 30s in the South of England, near 30C in Wales while Ireland and Scotland may see sheltered spots reach 27, possibly 28C. The air mass will grow warmer and so expect nights to stay warm too. It’s been quite some time since we’ve see widespread overnight minimums hold at 17-22C but that’s likely early and mid next week and with those balmy nights, come increasingly warmer days with a warmer base temperature which makes it easier for each and every day to grow hotter.

As advertised, this will be the best spell of July weather since 2006 for Ireland and the UK. Remember what was said last week and in further back. This year has striking similarities to 2005. The major Western US heatwave after a cold spring and low tornado season. That July was hot and dry across much of the UK and Ireland.

Here’s the latest ECMWF upper chart/850mb temps for next week.

Sat

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_48

Mon

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_96

Wed

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_144

Fri

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_192

Sun

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_240

Below is the ECMWF surface charts for the same days next week and notice the complete lack of precip over the UK with the exceptions of a few tiny blobs which clearly the model is sniffing out an odd heat induced shower which truthfully I don’t see as I think the cap will be too strong but I guess thermals which could get going over the higher terrain, providing a slight thunderstorm risk.

Note the model is sniffing out a potential change come Friday. Notice the band of rain to the NW on Friday but the pockets of heavy, localised rains over eastern and southern Scotland as well as parts of Ireland. The approaching system to the NW may cool the upper levels over the UK, allowing the cap to break and therefore storms to develop. This is a long way off and will likely change but right now, if I was to put a sell by date on this heat, then I guess Friday may be it. In saying that, if you progress into the weekend, there’s no significant change, so only time will tell.

Sat

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Mon

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Wed

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Fri

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Sat

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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