Hot July 4th From DC To Boston, Soaker For Southeast, Temporary Relief Out West

Written by on July 4, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

While the very heavy and persistent shower and storm activity will continue through July 4th and 5th over Alabama, Georgia north, it eases along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal plain where folks here from the Big Cities to coast need some relief. They will get it in the form of sunshine and hotter temperatures as the Bermuda high builds westwards and onshore.

How warm, look for 89 to 93 degrees from Richmond up to Boston over the next several days while the main hosepipe of moisture gets shifted west over the Appalachians and into the Ohio Valley. As for that trough in the Heratland. It remains cool and unusually dry from Michigan to Texas. It got down to 48 this morning over parts of Arkansas.

Check out these 48 hour rainfall totals off the QPF. That’s a heck of a lot of rain in just a couple of days. Notice the plume in further west while really the entire Eastern coastal plain, east of the mountains get a break.

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Notice the moisture creeping more and more into the Southwest!

Here below GFS surface chart at 24 hours shows the heavy rains spreading north from the Gulf into Alabama, Georgia up the spine of the Appalachians while points further east get a break but see increase in temperature.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Wet Southeast Will Keep The Northeast Much More Humid This Summer

One should keep in the mind when looking longer term through the rest of July and even August. The soaked or even saturated soils over the Southeast combined with the mean position of the Bermuda high being ‘offshore’. The flow will cross the wet Southeast, picking up MORE moisture and this will be driven directly up into the Northeast. In other words, expect a much more humid summer in the Northeast, even if temperatures are fairly ‘typical’. Rather than broiling heat, it’s should be more ‘steam’ this year, remembering that it has been extremely dry over the Southeast in recent years and along, still sticky at times from DC to Boston, the humidity should be a lot worse this summer even though it’s not as hot. To get to 100 in Philly, New York and Boston, the air has got to be dry enough to heat up.

Incidentally, the increased humidity should also keep nights warmer than normal and so this summer looks likely to be slightly above normal this year.

Little change in the setup out by 72 hours or Saturday with the coastal plain hot, hazy and humid while showers and storms continue over the mountains.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Looking out to early next week and while heights start to rebuild over the West following a weekend system pushing through the Pac Northwest, dropping heights, these will rebuild and so we watch heights naturally lower over the Northeast. So, 3-5 days with a run at 90 from DC up to Boston ends probably by Tuesday.

Here’s the ECMWF surface chart by next Tuesday and notice rains pushing through the Midwest en-route to the Northeast. This should introduce cooler, fresher air to the Big Cities which go from the tropical rainforest to oven.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By 192 hours or next Thursday and here comes the rain into the Northeast while the heat reloads Out West. Brief relief from Phoenix to Boise is temporary and although not as hot as it’s been, following 2-4 days of ‘cooler’, which is likely a mere return to normal, it gets hot and back to 110+ early next week!

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Notice that once the trough is lost and the pattern flattens, we loose all the big rains over the Southeast!!

Finally looking at the 500mb chart out at 240 hours, the ECMWF has a large upper trough over the Northeast while it tries to drive the Western heat northeastward into the Northern tier. After a cool, wet spell for the Dakotas and Minnesota, is the model sniffing out some hot weather towards the end of the 10 day?

Here’s the 850 temps.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_240

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