Get Ready, Summer Is On It’s Way To The UK, Best July Since 2006?

Written by on July 2, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

June overall averaged near normal temperature wise while it fell short in rainfall with just 52% of normal and this is likely to help provide us with the necessary soil conditions to support warmth and higher pressure into July. Models are all in excellent agreement that warmth builds along with high pressure this weekend and should take summerlike conditions right across Ireland and the UK through much of next week, so get those BBQ’s dusted down and ready for the weekend. For us here in Scotland and Northern Ireland, get ready too. We join in after some disappointing weather of late!

Prepare for some wet weather moving in through today and it’s likely to stay unsettled with a blustery south wind and spells of rain. That rain could be heavy and for some, persistent over the next few days but at least it’s not wall to wall rain for the next 48 hours. There shall be breaks in between.

Here’s the latest GFS surface charts for the next few days which shows low pressure and associated fronts crossing the UK.

Tue

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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As you can see, by 48 hours the rain has cleared east bringing a short respite Wednesday but this ‘drier’ weather is accompanied by a lot of cloud. Note another system is on it’s heels and will bring another round of wet and windy conditions Thursday.

Wed

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Notice with the next system that heights are rising quickly out of the southwest. These height rises may in fact provide a far less wet Thursday across much of England and Wales and temperatures will be rising back into the low, perhaps mid-20s even though it’s wet and windy further north.

Thu

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Once Thursday’s front clears, here comes the Azores ridge, providing warm, sunny conditions which sets us up for the weekend and following 7 days!

Fri

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

In saying that. While Friday should see temperatures rise to between 27 and 29C Friday, watch yet another low try to sweep wind and rain across Northern Ireland and Scotland during Saturday. Much of England and Wales look dry, mostly sunny and warm but this is a brief blip for the North (yet again) but thankfully it’s in and out in a matter of 12 to 24 hours. Exactly how much influence that front has remains to be seen given the strength of the height fields over the UK.

Sat

 

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By later Saturday into Sunday, the warmth and sun returns to all areas once again with highs reaching the low, perhaps even mid-20s into early next week across Northern Ireland and Scotland while parts of England and Wales eye 30 to 33C.

Here’s the latest ECMWF upper/850 chart for this weekend through next week.

Fri 5

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_96

Sun 7

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_144

Tue 9

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_192

Thu 11

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_240

I think the ridge should be strong enough to keep fronts N and W of Northern Ireland and Scotland through a good part of next week once we get rid of the front during Saturday.

I’m keeping an eye on the NAO and it’s showing a slight downward trend in it’s positive phase towards July 12-15th and both ECMWF and GFS are showing some weakening of the ridge late next week. However it’s too far out to tell, plus remember what’s been said all along, we live in the UK and so despite a good July, there will be ‘brief breaks’ but I am optimistic that whatever breakdown we see coming, we’ll also see our next spell of warm sunshine. This should become the best July since perhaps 2006 when you include the WHOLE UK!

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