Summer Heat Appears To Be On It’s Way To UK Shores, But How Was This Seen Coming?

Written by on June 30, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Last spring saw water temperatures VERY warm surrounding the British Isles after record warmth in March and with the help of the very warm North Atlantic and cold Pacific as well as the onset of a weak Nino, the pattern was primed for soaking rains and a washout summer.

This time around, we’ve seen far less rain in April, May and even June. The ENSO has flat lined, the Pacific isn’t as cold nor is the North Atlantic as warm but one stand out aspect I’m seeing on the SST’s charts is the tongue of cold water extending from Britain to south of the Canaries as well as the cool over the western Mediterranean Sea. That’s as a result of the cold spring and the persistent storminess of late.

Back in 2005 BEFORE the PDO turned cold, warm waters surrounding the UK could have supported warmth and ridging but it appears when the PDO is cold and AMO warm, warm waters, particularly surrounding the UK back into the central North Atlantic, aid is lowering pressure in the means and also helps produce bigger summer rains. While waters are warm in the Med, this supports positive heights further south and lower heights to the north.

Warm waters NORTH of the UK and surrounding Scandinavia while cold extends from the UK on south down the west coast of Africa and through the Gibraltar straight into the western Med, supports stronger heights further north while lower heights should be found further south.

Here’s the end of June SST’s in 2013 vs 2012

2013

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Note there’s a heck of a lot more blue over the North Atlantic compared to this time last year!

2012

5864_10151601204656731_1443454980_n

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Note the cool waters extending from the central Atlantic up to the UK at this time last year. That’s as a result of upwelling from one low after another which slammed the UK during April, May and June. Bare in mind that April and June was the wettest on record. The entire water temperature profile of the North Atlantic including Med Basin, aided significantly in the atmospheric pattern and where lows would track and how far south the jet stream would be positioned.

From the research I’ve done in recent years, it appears WARM waters surrounding the UK and extending south in warm AMO, cold PDO years suggest WETTER, COOLER mid-summer’s in the UK while it’s hot and dry further south but when it’s cold and the cold water extends west into the North Atlantic in cold PDO/warm AMO years which are LESS extreme than the previous year, can support stronger heights which means more settled, sunny and warmer conditions in the UK.

What’s different this year is the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation Index) is less of an influence, the PDO and AMO has less of an ‘imbalance’ and with COLDER, not warmer waters extending from the UK to Canaries, into the western Med, due to type of spring, supports STRONGER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS further NORTH and over the UK as we enter the heart of the summer. Wet soils and cool surrounding SST’s should support cooler and wetter further south this July.

The type of spring plays a critical role in water temperatures but obviously there are outside influences which control the atmospheric pattern, the NAO and that’s holding firmly positive and when positive, guess what, it supports lower pressure over the North Atlantic and higher pressure extending from the Azores and or Spain up to the UK!

For many weeks now I have been showing you this evidence which supports the best July in years.

Models are now showing this warmth and really from late this upcoming week, through the weekend and into week 2 of July is a period in which some very warm, even hot air may build over the UK. When was the last time this has happened in July?

Check out the ECMWF

Next Friday

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_120

Sunday 7th

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_168

Tuesday 9th

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_216

How warm could it get?

That’s a good question but given the upper and lower heights suggested by the models, we could get into the low 30s across Southern Britain while it reaches the mid to upper 20s in the North!

See today’s VIDEO!

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