Warmer, More Settled Conditions To End June, Start July, Some ‘Brief’ Interruptions

Written by Mark Vogan on June 23, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Both ECMWF and GFS are in agreement that the mean ridge position is largely over western Europe including the UK and Ireland through the remainder of June and into early July. There will however be a few glancing blows with deep lows passing not too far to our north. That means spells of rain and an increase in wind but these ‘brief interruptions’ are just that, brief!

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While today is crummy with a cool NW wind and plenty of hefty showers around, the models take the disturbed weather and low to our east through tomorrow with a much better day come Tuesday. Even tomorrow doesn’t look too bad with plenty of sunshine on offer along with much lighter winds. That sun and lighter winds, mean warmer temperatures.

The ECMWF brings our first short spell of interruption by Thursday, followed by clearing Friday, then followed by a more significant spell of rain, possibly wind too on Saturday.

Thu

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Fri

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Sat

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The height field should be stronger overall before late next week’s return to unsettled and so instead of an unusually deep low spinning directly over us, next week’s system will have more resistance with a 1032mb surface and upper high over the Azores which extends up over UK airspace. The low will stay to the north but it’s cold front crosses bringing rain and wind but a mere 12-24 hours later and it’s back to sun and warmer temps.

Once that system clears, heights rebuild and so too does the warmth again. While the model does not show particularly warm 850s as ridging resurges around July 1-2, I think this set up bears watching as these ridges may be warmer than what models are picking up on just now.

This doesn’t look too bad for a week on Tuesday!

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_192

After recent disappointing weather over Spain, Portugal and the south of France, conditions are looking much better for those seeking warm sunshine.

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