Saturday Evening Thoughts

Written by Mark Vogan on June 22, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Models remain consistent in bringing high pressure back across Ireland and the British Isles on Monday in the wake of this weekend’s unusually deep, sub-988mb low. That low has brought plentiful showers (some thundery) across Northern Ireland, Scotland and northern England, accompanied by blustery conditions today. Tomorrow winds veer NW as the low pushes into the North Sea. Winds will be strong with frequent showers for many.

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According to the ECMWF, heights build fast at the surface with a decent incline in the upper levels also during Monday, setting the scene for much of the week ahead. Sunshine should be plentiful with a warming trend through the week. Yes, there’s a no denying the model shows a system approaching late week. Time will tell on that. Interestingly, the NAO now appears to be holding more positive into July. This is something I made mention of just yesterday and was a real possibility given the study I’ve put in to this summer’s pattern.

Here’s the latest GFS NAO ensemble.

nao_sprd2

As for the GFS, it shows a MUCH warmer look into July than what the ECMWF has. While the ECMWF is a model that’s much more reliable. It’s not always right and while the GFS has been very poor of late, it may well be onto something next weekend and beyond in terms of warmth and a continuation of a more settled pattern into early July.

Below is a glance at the next 168 hour ECMWF surface pattern.

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