Summer Pattern Beginning To Show It’s Hand, Ridge Dominates UK Next Week!

Written by on June 21, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

All week it’s been made clear that our approaching wet, windy and cool weather this weekend will be short lived, a mere blip in a more dominant settled, mild or warm pattern. The NAO is a great long range indicator this season thanks to the right soil moisture content and a neutral ENSO. This signal has allowed me to forecast, quite accurately approaching warm up’s and cool downs some 10 days in advance.

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Next week is looking excellent with a nice ridge rebuilding from the southwest Monday. Looks like it sticks around throughout next week with warmth building as the week progresses. I expect to see low 20s for Scotland, mid, perhaps even upper 20s late week across the South of England.

When looking further down the road. It appears my summer forecast which was originally released back in April is holding well as the remainder of June is looking good with largely dry, settled and warmer than normal conditions. July looks on track with warmth and dry conditions dominating with short lived cooler, more unsettled spells. I do think that we will experience ‘heatwave’ conditions at some point this July. August too is looking good so far.

I’ve been looking back at a few past years, trying to match up similarities to this year and interestingly 2005 appears to be a good match in the bigger picture. Like this year, spring of 2005 was cold across the UK and USA. The severe weather season in the US was very quiet thanks to a cold spring. The spring was also wet in the East and Southeast US while dry in the UK. Atlantic SST’s we’re also similar with warmer than normal SST’s across the deep tropics while we had a nice tripole of warm-cold-warm over the N Atlantic. Of course I am going for a big hurricane season and 2005 set a new benchmark with 28 named storms. Must say, though I’m going for a big year, I don’t think we’ll see that. Also, spring water temperatures around the UK while warming up, started off cold, like we saw in 2005.

Glasgow was a site a looked at and in 2005, June was slightly above normal just like it is this year. July too was warmer than normal, like I’m going for this year.

Here’s the latest ECMWF upper chart and 850 temps for the next 10 days. Little change from recent runs.

Mon

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_72

Wed

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_120

Fri

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_168

Sun

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_216

Mon

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_240
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That’s it, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

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