Cooling Out West, Warming In The East But Next DC To Boston Cooldown On Horizon!

Written by on June 19, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

Temperatures Monday soared to an incredible 96 degrees just 75 miles north of Anchorage which not only was warmer than any town in Florida that afternoon (according to weather.com) but it was also a mere 4 degrees shy of the all-time STATE record. While it’s hot but turning cooler through the later half of this week as the strong upper ridge weakens, it’s turning much cooler and more unsettled across the Pacific Northwest. That change as a ripple effect across the country as the low pushes onshore. Highs will struggle to reach the low 60s in both Seattle and Portland Wednesday.

As for the heat over the Southwest, it gets trimmed over the next few days with highs returning to the 98-100F range for Las Vegas and 102-104F in Phoenix as the PNW trough trims heights over the Southwest and forces the core of heat east. Of course it’s plenty warm east of the Rockies with widespread 90s, even low 100s over the western Plains but I suspect you can add an additional 3-6 degrees onto the highs we’re seeing now over North Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska late week and through the upcoming weekend.

While it heats up over the Plains, it cools in the Northeast down into the Mid-Atlantic. Enjoy the refreshing upper 70s Boston and New York, low 80s Philly down to DC with low humidity because it will begin heating back up, particularly late weekend into early next week as the Plains heat works east.

As you can see from the below 500mb ECMWF, the heights significantly lower over the Pacific Northwest over the next 36 hours while they rise over the Plains. The ridge is far enough far west initially for that Northeast trough with beautiful weather and dry NW winds which keeps the humidity low.

36 Hrs (Thu)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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60 Hrs (Fri)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

90 Hrs (Sat)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

As you can see, by the time we reach Sunday and into early next week, heights and 850mb temperatures are on the rise and so temperatures recover to the low 90s as early as Friday into Saturday from Richmond up to Baltimore, perhaps Philadelphia and by early next week we could see 90 reach New York City.

120 hrs (Sun)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s Monday and you can see the 588 height line reaching up as far as South Jersey. This would suggest low 90s for Philly and even New York. The question is does it last?

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The answer is no. This looks likely to be the type of summer in the East where there’s 3-5 days of cool along with low humidity along with short 2-3 days of heat and increased humidity. It’s going to be a long and hot summer for the Plains in particular, perhaps even more so than the West as their getting some breaks, although I do believe a more prolonged spell of heat is on the way for the heart of summer but the heat looks likely to continue to little relief over the Plains through the foreseeable future.

Notice by next Wednesday (192 hrs) strong heights spread out, suggesting above normal temperatures near enough coast to coast from LA to New York. These building heights in the West herald the next Northeast cool down from mid next week towards the following weekend. After several days of slightly below normal from Las Vegas down to Phoenix, temperatures look set to roar back into positive territory while they go back to normal or slightly below normal from DC to Boston after 3-5 days of 2-5 degrees above.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By next Thursday (204 hrs) the ridge really builds with heights topping 592 all the way to Montana. This will drive a trough back into the Northeast but could support 100s up into Saskatchewan.

So, while there is warm-up on the way for the Northeast, the model is already seeing that next trough drop back into the Northeast, so the next cool down is on the charts by mid next week. This pattern ties in well with the overall soil moisture content and feedback to the atmosphere. Something that’s been talked about all the way back in April when I released my summer forecast.

There has of course been a LOT of rain over the Carolinas but thanks to the trough dipping south in coming days, the heavy rains will shift south, giving the Carolinas a break with fairly cool, dry air for the time of year.

South Georgia and particularly Florida will take the brunt of heavy precip over the next 3 days as you can see from the below QPF.

Here’s the QPF chart for the next 48 hours.

d13_fill

Check out the next 7 days, a lot of rain on the way for Florida and more driving across the Northern Tier thanks to that low pushing into the Pacific Northwest which rides the northern periphery of the ridge. Notice the lack of rain for the Desert Southwest. No sign of any monsoon moisture over the next 15 days at least I’m afraid.

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