Explosive Thunderstorms Expected To Erupt On Hottest Day Of Year

Written by on June 18, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The heat which has been talked about day by day for the best part of a week and first alluded to, on this day last week, is here with highs in and around 30C in Paris this afternoon while it pushed into the mid to upper 20s across parts of the Low Countries. While warm and humid today, Southern England should be warmer and more humid tomorrow with somewhere topping 28-29C.

The atmospheric dynamics are coming together over the next 24 hours which will make for an interesting afternoon. Not only will the heat and humidity increase but so too will the instability as upper level energy streams over top of copious amounts of low level fuel. Jet stream energy flowing out of the NW will enhance upward motion over southern England and particularly NW France, the Low Countries into Germany late tomorrow afternoon into the evening, making it easy for the atmosphere to fire off thunderstorms, of which could become troublesome with severe weather including damaging winds, large hail and flash flooding possible. Though there’s no strong directional shear, there will be an element of turning in the atmosphere over France, Belgium and the Netherlands as low level winds blow south, southeast while mid and upper level winds blow from the southwest. That may help transition these strong thunderstorms into supercells, in which could spin up an isolated tornado.

Here’s tonight’s satellite image showing strong thunderstorms firing over Germany and Poland beneath the upper level ridge.

getpicture

The CAPE values across the hottest areas tomorrow are through the roof with all models showing tremendous energy.

Here’s the latest GFS projected temps tomorrow afternoon.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Here’s the dew points

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the CAPE value

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Thursday MUCH cooler air is back in play for most and so while thunderstorms and heavy, localised downpours remain an issue, they shouldn’t be quite as dangerous over France, England but head east across the Low Countries into Germany and up towards Denmark and we could see more strong storms as the heat rushes north towards Scandinavia.

Sorry for the short post this evening. Will have more on the next 7-14 days in a post and video tomorrow!

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