Hot, Humid Air May Fuel Dangerous T-Storms From Paris To Berlin Next 48 Hrs!

Written by on June 17, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

It’s all thanks to a large upper low diving south into Iberia which will be responsible for bringing the first hot surge into the Northern European Coastal Plain or Lowlands. However, the combination of hot, very humid air and a warm front associated with the southward departing low will create a highly unstable atmosphere and likely to spark powerful thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding in the very areas which see the hottest temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

The heat is on across northern France, the Low Countries, SE Britain and Germany over the next few days as the upper low heads south of the UK and down over Spain. The circulation of the large upper low is now drawing very warm air north out of Africa on it’s eastern side while pulling unusually cool air south on it’s back side into Spain and Portugal. Not good for holiday makers.

GFS surface chart for tomorrow.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Wed

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Today will see highs reach a mere 23C in Madrid but tomorrow it’s looking even cooler with highs failing to even make 20C while Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam on northeast towards Berlin should all push 32C (90F). The truly hot air looks likely to stay on the mainland side of the North Sea and English Channel but with enough sunshine, temperature should approach 30C in areas just north of London on Wednesday. 26C is possible in England tomorrow.

Here’s the latest GFS 2 metre temperatures tomorrow and Wednesday afternoon.

Tue PM

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Wed PM

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The level of surface warmth and humidity underneath a warm front is a recipe for powerful thunderstorm development and through tomorrow afternoon, as strong surface heating builds, so the atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable with very moist air at low levels.

While the GFS shows the 90 degree line close to Brussels and Amsterdam, dew points are also very high with 70s covering most areas. That’s plenty of low level fuel.

Here’s tomorrow aft

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Wed aft

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The GFS shows very high CAPE values both tomorrow and Wednesday afternoon over N France, the Low Countries into Germany. Where storms fire, we could see tremendous rainfall rates and flash flooding is of concern.

Check this out!

Tue PM

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Wed PM

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Notice there’s low CAPE over England tomorrow but dynamics are much greater Wednesday afternoon when temperatures in the SE should approach 30C while dew points push the upper 60s, perhaps 70 in a few spots.

This, however is small fry compared to the level of CAPE on the other side of the North Sea as dew point temperatures soar into the UPPER 70s while the air heats towards 90F. With upper level energy overhead, there’s a dangerously unstable atmosphere over France, the Countries and Germany both Tuesday and Wednesday. An atmosphere which is very capable of setting off major thunderstorms with dangerous lightning and exceptional rainfall rates which could catch many off guard with flash flooding.

The greatest risk tomorrow is where CAPE values are through the roof at 5000-6000, near off the scale in far E France and southern Germany but strong storms may fire further north towards the Channel/North Sea coasts as well as over the water in southern fringes of England.

The risk for northern France, Belgium, Netherlands looks highest Wednesday.

Not everywhere will get them, but where they do fire, they will be very noticeable.

Below is the total precip forecast off the ECMWF for the next 72 hours.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Thursday, a system edging closer to NW Scotland crosses the country and shall deflect the heat away from SE Britain, N France and the Low Countries. The heat lifts north with Denmark and eventually southern and even northern Scandinavia will get in on the upper 20s to low 30sC.

Here’s the ECMWF upper chart and 850 temps from Wed through Sat.

Wed

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_48

Thu

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_72

Fri

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_96

Sat

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_120

As for the UK and Ireland, the upcoming weekend is looking good with fine, dry weather and mild temperatures as high pressure will be in control.

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