No Eastern Heatwave Or Next 90° From Philly To Boston Next 10 Days…

Written by on June 15, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

If you read my summer forecast issued back in April you’ll know that I haven’t went for a hot summer in the East this year and lot of the reason was down to the amount of rain seen during late winter and spring. I did however go for a hot, dry summer in the West and yes, you may say, it’s always hot and dry in the West. Well, to a point it is but the monsoon rains tend to bring wetness from mid summer on which can somewhat kill the heat and upper heights which shifts the hottest weather east. Also, lows swinging into the Pacific Northwest can trim heights down over the Southwest too. When you say a hot summer in the West, you mean HOTTER than normal. All weighed, the driest areas vs wettest areas should see the upper heights respond accordingly as we enter the heart of the summer.

I must admit that I am worried about an increased potential for some sort of MAJOR heat event during July from San Francisco down to Phoenix up to Salt Lake City with soils downright arid. The Plains was also going to be hot given the dry conditions here but on east, it was looking cool and wet. In just the last 10 days or so, a LOT of rain has fallen from Florida to Maine and in recent weeks from Minnesota all the way to Tennessee.

There are THREE heat sources to transport hot air into the Northeast. The first is the Desert Southwest, the second is Texas, as long as the Plains and Ohio Valley are dry like in recent years. However, when the ground is wet over the Midwest, you look to the Carolinas, especially when there’s drought for real heat getting up into the Northeast. We saw a classic example of this in recent years when the entire Southeast was a tinder box. Get a Bermuda high to the east, trough to the west and all the hot air gets forced up the coastal plain. We saw that last summer and the previous two. Remember that for the past THREE summer’s in a row, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington have all topped 100 at least once.

drmon

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100 is common in Washington at least once or twice in summer but it’s harder to get that the further north you go. The 100 degree hot streak for the Big Northeast cities commenced in 2010 and before then, there was no 100 since August 2001, why? because soils were fairly wet or soaked to the west and south. Beyond 2006, the ground began drying out to the east of the Mississippi.

This year is very different and much more like the early 2000s.

I don’t see it getting close to 100 this summer. While DC may push it a few times, peaking at around 98 or 99, I see a maximum of 95 in Philadelphia, New York and Boston.

I don’t see it even hitting 90 from Philadelphia north through MID-JULY and certainly over the next 10 days, the ECMWF holds the trough in the East with cool shots coming down on the backside of cold fronts with reduced humidity getting all the way to Georgia and Alabama like we see today. Nights should also be cooler with that drier air.

As for the CFSv2 shows, it shows, like the ECMWF, troughiness returning to the West Coast and in the East. That suggests plenty of rain from the Plains east. The NW trough with lows swinging into Washington and Oregon, bringing wind, rain and cool temperatures will also trim heights all the way to the Deserts, forcing the heat to be centred over the Central and Southern Plains.

Here’s the CFSv2 for the next 4 weeks.

Week 1-2

wk1_wk2_20130612_NAsfcT

Week 3-4

wk3_wk4_20130612_NAsfcT

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