CFSv2 Now Shows Warmer As Well As Drier July, August For The UK, Ireland

Written by on June 14, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

I was on the road all day yesterday so apologies for the lack of posting. Thought I would take a look at the latest CFSv2 for July and August this afternoon and interestingly it is now has showing what I’ve been banging on about for weeks and it’s, a warmer than normal July for much of the UK and Ireland. Finally the CFSv2 is going towards my idea I’ve had since April. I’ve not backed off my ideas, given the setup and rainfall pattern over the past 2 months.

Yes, your probably tired of me going on about rainfall, rainfall, rainfall and the feedback to the atmosphere, however I am wanting you to see the ‘behind the scenes of forecasting’ and not just the ‘what’s the weather going to do next week’. Models are relied on way too much and looked at without understanding of what’s going on. They are a tool, not the answer.

The pattern over the past 8 weeks has been crucial, laying the ground work as to how this summer will turn out.

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To briefly summarise what’s been talked about here for the past 8 weeks… the recent 10 days of dry weather (all but forgotten about now), more or less eradicated the wetness produced during the previous 2-4 weeks. Many across Ireland and the UK got to last weekend into early THIS week saying, we need some rain. That coming rain may I add was inevitable given the NAO going back negative.

Unfortunately many out there quickly forget what just happened and it seems we’re back to moaning about the rain, even comparing it again to last year and that what we just had, was our summer.

I’ve put the duration of the current wet, cool spell at roughly 10 days but what would follow, i.e the return to more settled, warmer weather, should eradicate the dampness that’s currently replenishing the top soil. In other words, the wetness we’re getting now, should quickly dry back out with the next warm spell.

I’ve been saying since way back last week that the NAO would go negative again, bringing the return of wet, cool weather but the ensembles were already showing the return to positive towards the 20th on. The NAO can be a good long range indicator of more persistent ridge or trough patterns over the UK and Ireland in neutral ENSO years and when soils aren’t too wet.

This year, the stage is set for warmer and drier OVERALL but that does not mean, we have a month long heat wave and drought. It means that ridging should be more dominant than troughiness. The ground should be drier and temperatures warmer. The wetness down to our south and east means I believe the negative heights or lower pressure should be to our south and east and given the potentially dry end to what should be a ‘drier than normal June’ should mean positive heights in July are positioned over NW Britain.

Here’s the CFSv2 chart for June which I showed you 2 evening’s ago.

euPrecMonInd1

Here’s the temperature chart.

Notice the cool is following the wet.

euT2mMonInd1

I went on to say that, if that’s the cause and the cool follows the wet, then if the month of June is as dry as what the model suggests over the UK, why shouldn’t it be warmer than normal, especially when we saw a warm, dry first 10 days, followed by near average temperatures and a wet spells with evidence of warmer and drier towards the 20th onwards given the NAO going back positive.

In order for this month to be normal or below in terms of temperature, this current spell would need to have been cooler than normal and wetter which it isn’t.

I’ve been making it very clear that July should be the best in several years with the potential for significant warmth.

Here’s the new CFSv2 for July and interestingly it’s now showing above normal temperatures with below normal rainfall parts of Ireland and the UK. Look at where it shows cooler.. right where soils have been wet.

euT2mMonInd1

Check out it’s July precipitation.

euPrecMonInd1

Looks like a very wet July is on the way across the South.

Cut off lows could be a frequent problem across Iberia and the South of Europe this summer while high pressure keeps things dry and settled further north but spokes of rain or energy could swing spells of thundery rain close to the Southern UK from time to time.

Let’s not forget also that there WILL be some cooler, cloudier days with rain at times.

So, if July ends up warmer, drier than normal, could August follow in the same way?

Here’s the latest CFSv2 temperatures for August.

euT2mMonInd2

The current setup in central Europe with all the saturated ground and flooding has similarity to the UK at this time last year. The feedback of those widespread wet soils should lead to a cooler, wetter summer here and so higher pressure in the means, should be further west. Opposite to last year.

Spain and France has seen a lot of rain too and it’s been cool because of all the rain. This should means a cooler, wetter summer here too.

Finally, here’s the overall look of this summer (June through August) according to the CFSv2.

Temp

euT2mSeaInd1

Precip

euPrecSeaInd1

The Southern half of England could be tricky in terms of DRIER than normal given the close proximity to potentially LOWER heights to the south. Low pressure could throw spells of unsettled weather north from France, producing a more thundery summer this year but in terms of warmth, I believe it’s a warmer than normal summer coming up even across the South. The greatest above normal temperature and below normal precipitation anomalies should be the further north and west you go over the UK and Ireland.

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