There is a lot of confliction between the ECMWF upper level and low level charts on next week. For the past couple of days now the upper chart has been showing, by far the strongest surge of warmth up into the UK yet while the surface charts continue to show rain and wind producing low pressure.

However, up until then the models are in good agreement on Saturday’s outcome with a spell of wind and rain as low pressure crosses the UK. However once you get out into next week, the uncertainty grows.

In saying that, I am willing to sway towards strengthening surface heights to go with the upper heights as the NAO ensembles show a rather rapid return to positive. That positive makes me more confident that the ECMWF is deffinately on to something and not printing a load of rubbish.

Firstly, here’s the surface charts for next Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Tue

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Wed

Thu

Here’s the ECMWF upper chart for the same days.

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

The level of heat at 850mb may well get significantly tempered in coming days whereas the surface chart may make way to high pressure. While there is plenty of unknown regarding next week, my hunch is with increasing surface heights IF the upper level setup holds with the current idea.

Here’s why my money would be with warmer and more SETTLED rather than unsettled.

Remember back to posts last week while we were enjoying warm sunshine. The breakdown was coming but ‘should’ have a short shelf life due to this years overall pattern with drier soils in the west, wetter soils in the south and particularly east. The positive and negative heights are going for these conflicting moisture anomalies.

It was also stated that once that NAO goes back positive, so we see the large-scale heights rise over the UK. Notice with the ECMWF the southbound low heading south and yet again CUTTING OFF. Low pressure is once again heading for the WET soils of Iberia while the warmth and stronger heights are trying to get back up into the UK.

Granted this warmth and return to drier conditions would have come a little quicker than expected, but why not? Even if the ECM is incorrect on next week and we continue to see damp, cooler conditions, it’s only a matter of time given the setup and the CFSv2 is certainly seeing the high pressure return sooner rather than later if the below monthly precip chart is anything to go by.

As a reminder, here’s the CFSv2 temp chart for this month. Although the UK has ‘average’ temps, look at France and Iberia.

Now look at where the model has the wettest soils compared to normal..

I’ll be very surprised given the above precip chart alone, if the UK averages normal or even a little below in terms of temperature. Notice how it’s turned even drier in the newer runs. That to me is the model seeing the above normal heights over the UK and indeed all those cut off lows to our south producing disappointing conditions over Portugal and Spain.

Hope you can see where I am going with this and where I’m going as we head for July…

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