Andrea Makes Florida Landfall, East Coast Flood Threat!

Written by Mark Vogan on June 7, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

On State Road 436 in Orlando, traffic fights early morning rain associated with Tropical Storm Andrea early morning Thursday, June 6, 2013. (Orlando Sentinel)

Tropical Storm Andrea made landfall in Dixie County, Florida this evening at around 5.40pm with winds of around 65 mph and pressure estimated at around 993mb. As expected, this system came ashore with little spectacle, simply bringing very wet, blustery conditions and in fact earlier today, while this low was nearing the coast, the strongest winds were up in the Jacksonville area while there was barely a breeze in Orlando.

Rain on the other hand was a different story as it poured. We also saw fast moving, weak tornadoes spin up, bringing relatively minor damage but this is common with these types of storms. Those 65 mph winds estimated by the NHC were not produced within the core at landfall but more the NHC estimated winds ‘somewhere’ within the circulation of 65 mph, but those may have been produced 50 or 60, even 100 miles away from the centre. This storm is very discombobulated and that was well pointed out in the days leading up to her landfall.

As of this writing the system is crossing North Florida at approximately 17-20 mph heading NE and should get close to Savannah, GA overnight as she rides the Carolina coast spreading heavy, tropical rains northwards towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Friday into Saturday.

Conditions should quickly improve over central and north Florida overnight as dry air sweeps in on the backside, clearing out the clouds and rain but tonight and through a good part of Friday, it’s will be messy through the Carolinas with a widespread 2-4, locally 6 inches of rain on top of several inches already down across central and eastern areas. Low lying roads within 50 miles of the South and North Carolina coast may very well be under water, so turn around, don’t drown!

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The rains will spread up through Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and through the Northeast tomorrow into Saturday bringing gusty winds along the coast. As a cold front makes that connection with the tropical low riding the coast, expect flooding rains across the Philadelphia, New York areas where we could see some large rainfall totals along with some of the strongest onshore wind gusts.

The GFS keeps the low inland enough that the system has no real chance of intensifying from warm waters, i.e off the South Atlantic coast but what may happen is that pressures are likely to fall as it makes that transition from tropical to extra-tropical and so the fuel becomes solely baroclinic but when you’ve got a TROPICAL low entering an active, energetic baroclinic environment with strong upper winds, look out! Coastal gales are possible and you can get prolific rains. It wouldn’t be surprising if there is parts of the Northeast which sees just as much rain as what parts of Florida did out of this.

Here’s the GFS surface chart out at 24 hours. Messy for the Carolinas tomorrow that’s for sure..

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By 48 hours it’s speeding northeastwards in the form of a Nor’easter, just west of Cape Cod.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the latest QPF for the next 72 hours.

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