Tropical Storm Andrea Forms, 120° Heat For Southwest!

Written by Mark Vogan on June 6, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

After a few hours sleep, I awaken to a named storm out in the Gulf and that name is Andrea! Though now a named system and while it will present fairly widespread gale-force winds with a smaller area of storm-force winds, little has changed in my overall thinking on this system. It’s heading into the Big Bend of Florida, likely late Thursday into Friday morning as a modest tropical storm but it’s going to drop a LOT of rainfall on Florida with a focus of that rain from Orlando north into south Georgia.

As you can see from the below water vapor image, there’s a heck of a lot of dry air, shaving convection and really exposing the western side so all the action is on the eastern side of the low. All the convection, wind and heavy rainfall will take aim at areas east of the centre, so Ft Myers, you’ll see spells of rain, heavy, thundery downpours, a little worse up in Tampa with a spell of gale-force winds and it’s really from Tampa north along the coast where we may see storm-force winds and flooding rains.

Peak winds with a landfall perhaps north of Cedar Key could be around the 50 mph range with gusts to 70 mph and a surge of 1-3 feet.

wv0-lalo

If the track takes the centre east of Apalachicola and Panama City, which is likely then there’s little impact, in fact it may be a near typical day along the central and western panhandle.

The AccuWeather graphic below shows the situation well with the focus of wind, wave and rain action slicing through central and north Florida.

Source: AccuWeather.com

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As well as a focus on Florida, the circulation is expected to cross the Peninsula and head for the coastal Carolinas where here too, heavy, potentially flooding rains and coastal gales are likely. There is tropical storm watches in effect for the coast of Georgia and South Carolina and with flat, marshy terrain, 2-4, locally 6 inches of rain is likely to produce flooding in and around Savannah and the Tybee Island area of Georgia as well as Hilton Head up to Charleston, SC. Onshore winds gusting to 60, maybe 70 mph is also possible along with increased rip currents and beach erosion.

Source: AccuWeather.com

Check out the latest QPF for the next 72 hours which shows a lot of rain for Florida, the coastal Carolinas as well as the Northeast.

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So why so much rain for the Northeast and New England you ask?

Well the models are seeing this low ride up the coast bringing a decent soaking up through coastal areas of Virginia including the DC-Baltimore area but the energy and tropical inflow is expected to enhance a cold front sliding from the Midwest towards the Atlantic Seaboard and in turn, could produce a soaking Friday into the weekend across a large area of the Northeast, this will present urban and poor drainage area flooding.

The Heat Is On Across The Southwest!

While it’s all about the rain and wind from Tropical Storm Andrea in the East, the heat is on Out West as high pressure builds big time.

According to both GFS and ECMWF, upper heights climb beyond 588dc over the Desert, significantly raising thickness levels and heating the 5,000ft level temperatures to 32C (90F), this will support broiling surface temperatures to record levels.

I expect temperatures Friday to near 110 in both Phoenix and Las Vegas as well as all other typically hot desert cities but the Central Valley of California looks set to really swelter in 105 Friday to potentially 110+ Saturday. Fresno in the southern valley could sweat to 112-113, Sacramento 105 while the northern valley could see equally as hot as in the south with an approach of 113 in Redding or Red Bluff.

At a peak (Saturday), both Phoenix and Vegas should push 113 along with Palm Springs. The position of the high suggests cooling relief with AM fog and a cooling onshore PM breeze along the coast, highs in the 70s and 80s, upper 80s for Downtown LA but once your over the coastal mountains, it’s toasty with Riverside at 103 to 105.

Here’s the GFS forecasted numbers for Friday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Saturday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Given these toasty numbers, you can almost guarantee Death Valley climbing into at least the low 120s for a few days starting Friday.

The cities of Phoenix and Vegas won’t get below 80 all weekend.

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