Great Week For The BBQ Coming Up Before Potential Soaking Next Weekend!

Written by Mark Vogan on June 1, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

There is fairly high confidence on a great week of weather coming up with plenty of sunshine and dry weather. Don’t see it being particularly hot but plenty warm with 20-23C widely. The feature sitting off the NE of Scotland midweek may be a slight fly in the ointment for Scotland with a possible increase in cloudcover but overall there should be little rain through at least Thursday or Friday as high pressure builds from the Azores once the weak front crosses Scotland today and tomorrow.

Be sure to check out the video I put up earlier which looks at the upcoming week in detail. I show both the GFS and ECMWF surface charts and they are eerily similar, raising my confidence of a great week for bbq’s and shorts. I tweeted the major supermarkets this morning, suggesting they increase their stock of bbq food. It should be the most sustained period of warm, sunny weather UK-wide of the year so far.

Of course this ties beautifully with the positive NAO signal I’ve alluded to for some 2 weeks now. I’ve kept saying, once the NAO goes positive, we should see our cold, unsettled pattern break. Unfortunately there is an end in sight even before it even kicks in as the latest emsembles shows the NAO going negative again and a little sooner than i first thought. Nonetheless, the widespread drier conditions of the next 7 days should bode well for later down the road. It’s been wetter than I had forecasted during May but not the washout we saw this time last year.

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Unfortunately both GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a fairly significant, very moist system developing around the Azores towards late week which lifts NNE into the UK next weekend. The warm source region in which this feature forms and lifts north, means a potential flood threat to the UK and Ireland. Too far out to add this into a forecast but something worth keeping a close eye on.

Here’s the ECMWF surface chart for next Saturday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the GFS surface chart for next Sunday, brings the SW feature up about 24 hours later than the ECM.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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