Next 2 Weeks Looks More Settled, Warmer For UK & Ireland

Written by on May 31, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The NAO is now back into positive territory and should continue climbing through the first 10 days of June with means heights should be lowering over the Atlantic and rising over Europe for the next couple of weeks. In other words we have an improving weather pattern for the UK, Ireland and indeed Europe where it’s been a long and cold spring.

Tomorrow does of course herald the start to meteorological summer which constitutes the June through August period. The large-scale rise in the pressure field doesn’t mean endless sun and scorching weather but it means the pattern should become less active with less of an Atlantic influence.

What we’re going to see and are now starting to see, is a main mother low spinning away over the North Atlantic while a high pressure core is centred south or southeast of the UK, this should allow weak fronts, associated with that main low, to skirt the northern half of the UK. These disturbances will ultimately ride the northern periphery of the ridge. Expect spells of increased cloudcover over northern Ireland, Scotland and perhaps northern England with spells of light and patchy rain. We will see this over the weekend.

Following the passing of a weak front Saturday which brings cloud, light rain to Scotland, enhances shower activity too and trims temperatures further south, we should see a rebound in heights and temperatures Sunday into Monday. The models are persistent in raising pressure in the wake of the front and so by Monday it should be warmer even across Ireland and Scotland.

Here’s the GFS surface chart for tomorrow.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s Monday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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The GFS on Monday has a 984mb low over the North Atlantic which should help pump heights to 1030mb over the UK.

By Tuesday the strongest heights have migrates NORTH of the UK and we see another disturbance cross the Northern UK bringing an increase is cloud with light and patchy rain.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Wednesday, a small cut off low forms off Scotland and on the SSE side of the high pressure core which is positioned over Scandinavia by midweek. This will swing another weak front into Scotland from the NE, presenting perhaps a more substantial rain to Scotland but southern parts of the UK should remain dry, sunny and fairly warm.

These fronts are weak and slow moving because the pressure field within is strong.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Check out the ECMWF upper chart for the same period.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_120

By Thursday the low pressure feature is heading away from the UK and that should allow the return of sunnier skies as well as warmer temperatures to Scotland.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Interestingly the ECMWF has the upper cut off low positioned and stuck off the north east coast of Scotland which would support cloudier skies and spells of rain while the GFS surface map is clear with pressure beyond 1032mb.

Here’s the ECMWF chart for Friday. Note the warm 850s over England and Wales. With sunshine, highs easily rise into the 23-24C range.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_168

All in all, next week is looking decent with a lot of dry, sunny weather ahead. Yes there will be spells of cloud and rain for Scotland and northern Ireland but even here there shall be good spells of warm sunshine to be had.

The NAO looks to go back to negative towards mid-June and so don’t be surprised to see the return of more unsettled weather by around June 15.

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