Unsettled Start To Next Week For UK But Next Warm Surge Is On The Horizon!

Written by on May 25, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 1 Comment

What a splendid bank holiday weekend for the majority of the British Isles with light winds and temperatures responding beautifully. The warm sunshine by day comes at a price by night and that is a chill with a touch of rural ground frost but I think we can live with that.

Unfortunately it is not so sunny or indeed warm over the western flank of Ireland, Northern Ireland and the Western Isles due to a frontal boundary, that front incidentally will move UK-bound by Monday as the ridge providing our glorious weekend gets kicked east.

Here’s the surface chart for this evening according to the GFS and you can clearly see the front sitting immediately to our west while it’s clear and settled over the UK.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Tomorrow will see more in the way of cloud across all of Ireland, NI and all of Scotland except for eastern areas. England and Wales will see brilliant sunshine and with light winds expect highs to push 21C around London. Through the afternoon I am optimistic that pockets of brightness or sunshine may break through over western and central Scotland despite the gloomy start.

As for Monday, well the much anticipated and rather active front associated with an unusually deep 984 mb low will sweep a band of heavy rain and strong to gale-force SW winds across Ireland, NI and Scotland, eventually pushing into northern England but as for the Midlands down into particularly the Southeast, expect another warm and sunny day. It wouldn’t surprise me if either we match or even beat tomorrow’s forecasted high of 21C in London thanks to an increasing SW flow which could pull NE warmer air ahead of the front.

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By 54 hours the GFS has the front sweeping across Ireland and advancing into western parts of the UK.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Rough conditions can be expected over the Irish Sea with a southerly gale blowing with possible storm-force winds. This will present disruption to shipping.

The GFS shows a powerful jet roaring out of the south over Ireland as the potent front advances.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Once the front sweeps through, there is a heck of a lot of rainfall focusing over France while it’s a very unsettled theme over the UK and Ireland in the wake of the passing front with frequent heavy showers and longer spells of rain for some. Winds will be fresh and at times strong, especially in coastal areas.

Here’s the GFS at 78 hours and you can see the amount of liquid over France, especially in the SE.


Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The reason for the very heavy rains over France with a focus on the SE is because a new low is projected to form at the base of the trough according to the model and this is seen to become another cut off low over the Med. This is literally a repeat of what we’ve just seen though not as cold and like we’ve, once the energy dives south with a new forming forming, ridging develops over top, so the UK looks primed for a warmer and more settled second half to next week.

Here’s the surface chart by Wednesday and you can see ridging building in as it’s pretty messy to the south.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Thursday the focus of unsettled weather will be over Italy (possible the Alps also) south into the northern Med.

Here’s the GFS forecasted rainfall totals through 144 hours and while wet over Ireland and the UK, the bulk of the rain comes Monday and Tuesday and then heads SSE so really from Wednesday onwards I expect an improving picture.


As for the expected ‘potential warm-up’ as we commence June, well I am becoming more and more optimistic as both GFS and to a slightly lesser degree, the ECMWF has ridging between June 1-5.

Here’s what the GFS 500mb heights suggest on June 2.


Although the ECMWF isn’t totally buying the UK ridge and warmth, it is trending more and more towards this idea that I’ve had, based on the fact that the NAO is looking to go more and more into positive territory early in June.

The significance of this potential warm surge may be that it may try to hang around for longer than what we’ve seen up until now and that is 1-2, 3 days at the most.


Here’s the latest NAO ensemble.


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  1. julie says:

    looks like another washout for a summer!!!

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