Memorial Day Weekend Frost Is One Thing, But Snow In New England?

Written by on May 23, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

During the day Thursday the cold front will finally push through the Big Cities of the East and head out to Sea, this will clean out the heat and humidity but unfortunately this also heralds a rather messy Memorial Day weekend across the region as a low is set to bring wet, breezy and chilly conditions.

Believe it or not, there is even a small chance of some SNOW showers over the higher elevations of New England as well as the Appalachians. If anything it looks likely to be flurries or showers but it’s unlikely to stick.

Here’s the GFS surface map for Friday and you can see the messy weather over the Northeast with rain, wind and a chilly NNW flow.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Both Friday and Saturday looks showery, blustery with a cool NW flow with focus of precip between Maine and southern New York where here there may be longer spells of rain, more in the way of showers into Philadelphia and Baltimore and DC.

Beneath all the cloud and rain, it’s going to be cool with highs struggling to make the low 50s in Boston, upper 50s in New York, possibly Philadelphia and low 60s in DC.

As for snow, well the GFS has lost the idea for the Appalachians but beefed up the possibility over parts of New Hampshire, Maine down into Massachusetts with even slight accumulations over the mountains.

Check this out.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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The areas shaded in blue have the greatest chance of seeing snow. I think it’s unlikely to see down into Massachusetts and especially into Connecticut. Although 850s are certainly cold, I think the lower atmosphere will be too warm but up above 3-4,000ft over the Green and White Mountains of New Hampshire and into Maine and it’s plausible to see some traces or perhaps an odd inch of snow.

Not every year you talk about snow on Memorial Day weekend, it’s usually all about heading to the beach and marking the unofficial start to summer.

Into the day Sunday and according to the GFS, the frontal system keeping things wet down the I-95 corridor drifts offshore and a high shall build down out of Canada. This should slacken any wind, clear skies out and present interior areas with a frost risk.

Here’s the surface chart off the GFS by Monday morning.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

This will be nothing severe but may be a nuisance for the anything to fruit growers. Your also unlikely to get a prolonged period below freezing but if anything, I suspect some sheltered valleys of southern New York, Pennsylvania into West Virginia may reach 31-34 degrees for 2-3 hours.

Here are expected lows Monday morning.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

 

The GFS certainly has a heck of a cold morning from SW NY to West Virginia but like with that last blast of arctic origin air, I think these numbers are a little overdone. Yes there will be some pockets of 32, maybe 31 but not a widespread area of 30-32.

Looking out into early and mid next week and the ECMWF still has building heat from the Southwest into the Plains as the next system pushes onto the West Coast.

I suspect 100s will appear onto the plains of Oklahoma, Kansas up into western Nebraska and by mid to late week, 90s return to Kansas City, St Louis and even Chicago. Towards next weekend the heat should push into the Big Cities of the East Coast and we may see the first 90 for Philadelphia, perhaps New York City. DC of course has already seen 90.

Here’s the ECMWF upper chart/850 temps through next week.

Thu May 30

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_192

Sat June 1

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_240

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