Now is the time to get the BBQ ready and nip to the shops if you live anywhere from Manchester on north. Though it may be cloudy, misty, even damp, we should see sunshine breaking through later this afternoon. Tomorrow looks to be the best day in terms of sunshine and warmth as highs reach 21-22, locally 23 or 24C over central and western Scotland with 21C possibly extending south through Carlisle, maybe as far down as Manchester. Northern Ireland, possibly extending into northern parts of the Republic should warm towards 18 or 19C with a sun/cloud mix. The NE wind will help raise temperatures over Scotland with sunshine and downsloping but as this flow travels across the North Channel, it cools, meaning Belfast and eastern parts of NI won’t be quite as warm.

Even today, with the sunniest skies over the Northwest Highlands, may produce 22-23C (72-73F).

As explained throughout the past week, warm air was seen first building over central Europe as a new trough was being carved out over the UK and down into Iberia but as that low itself dove south it became cut off and that allowed the northward migrating warmth from Africa to wrap around the northern side of the low which is now warming Scotland and the Northern UK up.

Check out the video below which i put up here last Saturday. It foresees the current pattern very well some 8 days out.. Though there are a little inaccuracies (always will be), this was another excellent and highly accurate forecast idea which was released to you over a week out and I am proud of it. It shows that understanding the weather pattern and physical reality and what can happen that numericial forecast models aren’t the be all and end all. In other words, you can go purely by models and your forecast may change 20 times over a 7 day period but by understanding what can happen when you’ve certain players on the field, this can at times beat what the models are saying.

It’s not a case of blowing my own trumpet but more of a high scoring forecast which was put out. I strive to provide you with the very best service, a service in which you can arrange outdoor plans around. It hopefully justifies your commitment to markvoganweather.com.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsM_wLfm7wQ]

The only thing I would say about getting that BBQ out tomorrow is that there is an increased thunderstorm potential tomorrow afternoon and this could cause problems with LOCALISED downpours. They will be hit and miss (not all will get them) but get beneath one and they will be torrential, likely packing thunder and lightning.

The Southeast of England will be cloudier and cooler due to the low spinning close by over northern France.

Tuesday starts the cooling process although I wouldn’t be surprised if western Scotland enjoys another day of 21-22C before a front drops down from the north introducing a much cooler northerly flow. That will set the scene for the remainder of the week.

Check out the difference in the upper chart between tomorrow and Thursday! Ouch!

Mon

Thu

Now that’s a neutral NAO for ya. A day or two of warmth then back to cool. The good news about the coming chill once again is that we should be drier, less in the way of rain as the source region of this flow is always fairly moisture starved.

The focus of rainfall over the continent through the 144 hours or up till next Saturday will be over the heart of the continent. We will see spells of rain but nothing like what parts of Germany into the Alps will see.

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