No Sign Of Significant UK Warmth Next 3-4 Weeks According To Euro Monthly, NAO Flat Lines

Written by on May 18, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Rainfall estimates for the past 24-hours according to my weather channel app.

Rainfall estimates for the past 24-hours according to my weather channel app.

Well I was kind of struggling to think of what to write about tonight that’s different given my post yesterday pretty much sums up the next 5 days or so. I have little change on the next 5 days.[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

We of course saw some very heavy, torrential rains across the North of England, southern Scotland and over parts of Northern Ireland today in association with a frontal system drapped across the region. The reason for such heavy and persistent rain was due to the stationary nature of the boundary but warm air wrapping around the north side of the low was fuelling the rains, enhancing the ‘lift’ within the atmosphere. As that front sags south, warmer air will eventually slide across the UK and you’ll notice a muggier feel to the air, especially over Scotland and northern England on the backside of the front. It shall be warmer tomorrow, warmer still on Monday and perhaps the warmest day comes Tuesday before yet another system drops out of Iceland, reintroducing colder air once again. As stated in several recent posts, how warm we get early next week will very much depend upon how much sunshine we get.

If you haven’t already, be sure to read yesterday’s post, click link above.

I have had a look at both the GFS and ECMWF NAO ensembles as well as a glance at the European Monthly which looks a full 4 weeks into the future and I hate to say, but I see no sign of significant ridging and major warmth in the near term but we knew that was likely to be the case through at least the remainder of May. Yes there will be flirts with warmer air and brief spells of ridging but on the whole, troughiness and a very transient pattern appears to continue into at least the second week of June.


I am optimistic that once we enter June, the NAO should re-enter positive territory, perhaps taking a spike. That would provide us with a better chance at seeing some true warm air. The latest ensemble appears to see a flat lining as you can see above but if you notice, by early June it looks to rise again and the ECMWF has the same idea. Could that be an early sign? Up till then, the ensemble suggests the continuation of a pretty progression, highly Atlantic influenced pattern with no sustainable warmth to be had.

May will end up below normal temperaturewise and could well end up near normal, possibly even above normal (in areas) precipitation-wise. I believe we will see a change in fortune mid to late June. The ECM Control and Monthy is hinting at a ridge trying to build into the UK and Ireland around June 2 or 3rd, perhaps the model seeing that spike in the NAO? and then around mid-month. I hope to provide you with a weekly update on the longer term as we progress towards meteorological summer.

Unfortunately I am not allowed to show you the ECM control and monthly models but I can at least shed light as to what their saying. Will show you charts again tomorrow.

In a post hopefully tomorrow I want to look into the increased volcanic activity, particularly over Alaska and try to tie this in to potential impact on next winter. Volcanoes have an effect if they have a large enough ejection of ash into the upper reaches of the atmosphere and can lead to increased high latitude blocking patterns and consequently, cooler temperatures during winter.

Image courtesy of Mark Vogan

Image courtesy of Mark Vogan

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