Quietest Tornado Season Since 1992, Severe Outbreak Looms This Weekend!

Written by on May 14, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

Thank all the cold weather this spring for what has now ‘officially’ become the quietest tornado season since 1992 for the United States. According to Henry Margusity of AccuWeather, yesterday beat 2004 but it’s unlikely to beat 1992 because there was very few tornadoes that year and it’s looking increasing likely that this very quiet year is about to change. Ultimately the cold can only last so long as the pattern begins to kick into a more summerlike regime. With major heat now sweeping east through the Plains into the Ohio Valley, after some very cold mid-May nights from New York down to Georgia, the heat will manage to reach the East Coast and with a storm system set to push into the Midsection, this will change the environment towards this weekend.

Look out Mid-Mississippi Valley cities towards this weekend as dew points rise and a cold front heads towards you folks in Kansas City, St Louis etc.

Here is the chart which represents the quiet tornado year thus far.

590x383_05131509_severe1
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So, it’s looking like we’re going to see the first ‘decent’ severe outbreak probably Saturday afternoon over the Plains and by Sunday that risk area will swing into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley.

Here’s the upper environment Saturday and Sunday.

Sat

gfs_namer_120_500_vort_ht

Note the system pushing into the West which pumps heat and higher dew point air north from the Gulf.

Sun

gfs_namer_150_500_vort_ht

Note the negative tilt to the trough over the heartland Sunday afternoon with a disturbance running along the SW flow aloft. That disturbance is the X that marks the spot where we see surface convergence and turning within the atmosphere with height.

Check out these dew points for Saturday afternoon. 60s and 70s are pushing right up into the crucial area wwhere those thunderstorms will fire begin rotating.

We simply haven’t seen these kinds of dew points all spring.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s Sunday at 144 hrs. The air is VERY juicy throughout the Mid-Mississippi Valley. See the perfect dry line along the western high plains.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

As for the CAPE values, well they really go to town both Saturday and Sunday, AGAIN, these are levels not seen so far this spring.

Sat

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Sun

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

As for tonight’s cold in the East. Well it got all the way down to 22 degrees this morning at Mt LeConte, Tennessee and throughout the East, high pressure has built in and that means clearer skies across a broader area along with lighter winds compared to last night.

Here’s the latest GFS numbers for Tuesday morning.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Will be interesting to see just how cold it gets.

Wednesday will be another cold start up across the Northeast, less so further south and by later Wednesday into Thursday, the heat from the Midwest and Ohio Valley swings in and that means highs recover into the much more typical 80s.

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