MON 13 MAY: UK & IRELAND REGIONAL FORECAST

Written by on May 13, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Courtesy of Mark Vogan

Courtesy of Mark Vogan

Scotland

It’s been a wild day right across the country, all thanks to a deep low to the north which has driven in very cold air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere aloft. With strong surface warming within those sunny spells, the combination of the very cold air aloft, warming at the surface, enhances the showers which fall. Within those showers, the very cold air aloft gets transfered down to the surface, so sleet, even wet snow can be mixed in at low levels. Thunder, lightning, hail and strong, gusty winds have all been a elements associated with these hefty showers.

Through tonight, showers ease and skies turn clear with winds easing also. An area of rain develops across the Far North and will drift down the western side of the country overnight, reaching Glasgow by early sunrise Tuesday. In rural areas where skies remain clear, don’t be surprised to see frost. Lows range from 4 or 5C in towns, 1-3C in rural areas.

Tuesday should be a fairly dry and bright day, although even cooler than today at just 9 or 10C. Lighter winds will make it feel a little more comfortable compared to the stinging wind chill of today. Showers will be around again tomorrow but a little less intense. Expect further hill snow.

England

After a day of sunshine and blustery showers, conditions should improve after sunset this evening. In fact it may turn quite cold beneath clearing skies and lighter winds. Rural parts of the Midlands into Eastern England may see a touch of grass frost with lows dipping towards 1 or 2C in sheltered spots. It will remain cloudier in the North with scattered showers continuing. Cloud will also increase across Devon and Cornwall as the next system pushes in from the Atlantic. It is the approach of the system into SW England which will become a significant weather maker through Tuesday.

Tuesday morning dawns chilly across the heart of England but an intense canopy of rain will spread into the Southwest and across the South of England through the day. Rainfall rates could be quite significant with 1-2 inches possible over 6-12 hours which is highly likely to cause flooding. The cold air aloft will get transfered down to the surface within the most intense pulses, so don’t be surprised to see sleet or even snow over hilly areas. Winds become strong from a sourtherly direction through the day. Further north it’s much drier, brighter and less windy from about Manchester northwards where hit and miss showers will be the theme here. Highs range from just 6 or 7C beneath the heaviest rain in the South to a somewhat more comfortable 10-12C where it’s drier and brighter in the Far North.

Wales

Following a cool, showery day with gusty WSW winds, conditions should ease through the first half of the night with clearing skies and much lighter winds. That sets the stage for a rural frost to develop as lows dip towards 2 or 3C, holding at 5 to 7C in towns and cities.

Through the second half of the night, an area of rain will sweep into the southern half of the country and this rain will become heavy and persistent through Tuesday morning. Winds will freshen also. The central part of the country should see this heavy rain push up from the SW through late morning but in the North, it should stay much drier with blustery showers to contend with.

The shield of rain will have embedded pulses of particularly heavy burts which may mix sleet or even snow to low levels as very cold air aloft gets forced down to the surface. 1-2 inches of rain is possible through the next 24 hours so flooding is likely. Highs will be very chilly by mid-May standards with some in the soggy South struggling to get much above 5 or 6C. That’s a solid 8-10C below normal.

Northern Ireland

Today was a chilly, blustery day with heavy, thundery showers rattling along in the WNW flow. Conditions become a little quieter overnight in terms of shower activity but winds remain fresh. Despite the wind which mixes the air, keeping it somewhat warmer.. temperatures will in fact drop away to very chilly levels for the time of year due to the arctic source region it’s blowing from. Rural areas will dip towards 2C in spots and in areas sheltered from the wind, don’t be surprised to see grass frost by morning.

Through Tuesday it’s another day of sunshine and showers with a stiff WNW wind. Those showers could bring a mix of rain, sleet and hail with thunder thrown in for good measure too. Highs will be very dissapointing for mid-May at just 9 or 10C, always feeling colder in the wind.

Ireland

It’s been an unseasonably cool, showery day with gusty winds whipping those showers west to east across the country. Through tonight and skies turn clearer and so despite the winds remaining fresh, strong along the coasts, it will turn very chilly with parts of the Midlands dipping to 3 or 4C. Towns and cities not much better at 5-7C. The showers will become few and far between, mainly confined to western and southern coasts overnight.

Through Tuesday and an area of heavy rain looks to largely miss the South of Ireland but may clip the coast. It remains uncertain how far north this canopy of rain goes, if it drifts a little further north, then Cork and the South is in for a soaker of a morning. However, it’s looking like a repeat of today with a brisk west wind which will drive hefty, thundery showers across the country, more prolonged rain in the west. Highs tomorrow remain very dissapointing for the time of year at just 10-12C.

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