Sub-984mb Low To Bring 60-70 mph Wind Gusts To Ireland & UK Thursday (Includes Video!)

Written by on May 7, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments


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Image source:

A vigorous upper low will be centred near Donegal Thursday and with a surface low potentially eyeing 980mb, winds are expected to be unusually strong across a broad area of Ireland and the UK with Ireland, Wales and much of England of particular concern. We could see widespread gales with coastal and high-elevated gusts of 60-70 mph with this setup. Heavy blustery showers will also be a feature of Thursday’s weather.This comes in stark contrast to today’s balmy summer-like temperatures and widespread sunshine, brought about by a ridge extending north from Iberia. This high will get kicked east tonight and through tomorrow, making way for the strong low to move in from the Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday.As for tomorrow, it’s all about the return to a much cooler and more unsettled weather pattern with heavy, squally showers sweeping NE across the UK.

An area of heavy and prolonged rain is set to park itself across Southern and Central Scotland tomorrow for several hours and may well present localised flooding issues to some parts, particularly upslope areas of the Southern Uplands and possibly Southern Highlands but the sunniest area will be the Central and North Highlands where temperatures may well exceed 21C.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]On Friday the upper low weakens as it heads east after battering much of Ireland and the UK, but colder air left in it’s wake aloft and with the strong May sunshine heating the ground, Friday is looking like a day dominated by sunshine and heavy, thundery showers packing hail and gusty winds.

Saturday remains somewhat unsettled but towards early next week, the pattern turns cooler as a trough begins to drop down, dragging cooler air from the northwest down with it.

The majority of next week appears coolish but we’re at that time of year now that when you get the sunshine, it warms up nicely and with any trough or upper low overhead, which there should be through at least the first half of next week, increased instability with the warming surface, should increase the shower risk with some localised thunder, lightning and small hail.

Here’s the GFS surface chart for Thursday’s situation and you can see how deep this low is according to the models.

36 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by MeteoGroup

Courtesy/Owned by MeteoGroup

48 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by MeteoGroup

Courtesy/Owned by MeteoGroup

Notice how deep that surface low is and how tightly packed those isobars are. Even inland parts of Ireland, Wales and England may well see gusts locally beyond 50 mph and with trees now weighing more with the increase in leaf coverage, trees may come down a lot easier.

Here’s the ECMWF upper chart for Thursday. That upper low overtop of the deep surface low means an increased threat of energy transfer from aloft to the surface and certainly the tops of the Pennines, Snowdonia and even the Southern Uplands as well as the higher elevations of Ireland, could see local gusts to 80+mph given the upper level support with this system.


As for early next week. A trough looks to keep a lid on any real warmth and will also keep the shower risk fairly high but I am wondering whether we may begin to see some sort of ridge trying to build from Iberia back up towards the UK late next week and towards the weekend. Let’s wait and see what happens with the late next week period.

Here’s the ECMWF’s latest look at next week.

Mon 13


Wed 15


Fri 17



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