Improving Weather Into Next Week, First Taste Of Summer For Scotland, Scandinavia? (Includes Video!)

Written by on April 29, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Videos with 0 Comments

The remainder of this week will stay on the chilly side with snow even to low levels across parts of Northern Scotland and the Northern Isles. Of course we have the news grabbing snow across many parts of Spain also. For the UK, there is no real warmth through the rest of this week despite plenty of mid week sunshine before another front swings southeast during Wednesday. As for Spain, improvement comes mid week on but it appears to stay slightly below average with modest recovery in the 850 temperature.

The late week period from Thursday into the weekend is looking increasingly unsettled across the UK and Ireland with heavy rain and strong winds, however as we progress into early next week which takes us towards the second week of May, as stated back last week, there is hints of height rises across the UK up into southern Scandinavia as a cut off low gets forced southeast by higher pressure trying to build both over Spain and the Baltic Sea.

These two highs will try to connect and draw heat from Africa up through the UK, possibly eastern Ireland into Norway, Sweden and Finland mid to late next week. No 21C through the next 5 days over the UK but in the 5-10 day, the model suggest low 20s not only may return to Southern England but Scotland as well as southern Scandinavia for the first time this year. Use caution though, this is nearly 10 days away. A lot can change from now till then.

Here’s the ECMWF chart for Sunday

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_144

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Notice the cut off low spinning SE of England. This will likely keep these unsettled and chilly with an east wind but despite this, cast your eyes to the west, ridging is trying to work around this low and as heights builds around this low, higher pressure building to the north and west, should force this south stubborn upper feature SE, allowing warmer air to advance north into the UK. Temperatures should recover nicely over Iberia by this time.

Tuesday

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_192

By Tuesday the cut off sinks south with height rises to the north and west winning out, which will allow warmer air to reach the UK again. Spain’s current cold and snow will be history by early next week as temperatures warm back above average with mid-20s from Seville to Madrid. If the low gets far enough east, the warmth building from Morocco and Algeria up into Spain, should spread north, allowing the return of low 20s into south-central and southeast England.

Wednesday

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_216

By key is the position and movement of the cut off as you can see it’s well off to the southeast by Wednesday with heights and warm air building north. In fact the ECMWF is suggesting the first real warmth all the way up into Scotland. Will be interesting to see how this set-up unfolds over the next week.

Thursday

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_240

By Thursday the cut off low is a small feature which will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over Italy and the central Med but check out the ridge and bubble of warmth covering Scandinavia. Not only may Scotland enjoy a taste of early summer, finally.. but Norway, Sweden and Finland too look to see some substantial warmth late next week.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpuKSUPF_Wc]

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