Cut Off Lows Plague Northwest Africa, Iberia For Next 5+ Days

Written by Mark Vogan on April 27, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Videos with 0 Comments

While the cool, northwest flow, sunshine and April showers dominate the UK and Ireland through next week, areas of surface low pressure are forming south of a trough dropping down over the UK and Ireland. These surface cut offs, divorced from the main upper flow (jet stream) can plague regions for many days,l even a week or more because they are CUT OFF with no upper level air flow to move them along and will bring and will continue to bring cool and unsettled weather to both Morocco and Iberia. An upper level cut off is forming now and looks to remain spinning over Spain, Portugal and up into France through much of next week.

Upper level cut off lows at this time of year act like whirlpools of cold air aloft and often enhance instability, creating sunshine and heavy, thundery showers. The low will bring a spell of very wet and windy weather with mountain snows through the next 36-48 hour period before it properly cuts off and spins for the much of next week, keeping things cool and unsettled over Spain and Portugal.

As well as wind, rain, unseasonable cool and even mountain snowfall, the cold upper low will enhance instability as strong sunshine heats the ground but with colder than normal air aloft, increases the rate of upward motion, so gusty thunderstorms with hail and copious amounts of rainfall is likely.

Here are a few GFS surface pressure and precip charts for rainfall over NW Africa and Iberia into next week.

12 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by MeteorGroup

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36 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by MeteorGroup

Iberia_2013042712_pcp_36

72 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by MeteorGroup

Iberia_2013042712_pcp_72

Here is the upper chart and 850 temps off the ECMWF.

Mon

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_48

Wed

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_96

Fri

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_144

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I16DyAs4Dxk]

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