Warm Today, Warmer Next Week But Cold & Snow Follows From Denver To Chicago

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_24

Today is most certainly the warmest day of the year so far across the Northern Plains and boy what a turnaround from just a few days ago when it hit 10 degrees all the way to the Texas Panhandle and highs were stuck at or below 32 for many places in Kansas.

Today, temperatures are already soaring into the 70s as far north as Bismarck, ND but where that snow remains deep, it’s only 36 currently at Langdon. Tomorrow will be warmer and it would not surprise me at all if we get to near 80 in Rapid City, SD, mid-70s into south-central North Dakota and even up into Minneapolis too.

Here are the current temperatures late this afternoon.

Image source: weather.com

Image source: weather.com

Up until yesterday, Fargo, ND’s highest temperature of the year was a mere 43, yesterday it mustered 47 but today it’s currently 64 and tomorrow looks on track to push 70.

Parts of South Dakota is in the mid-70s and all this warmth is naturally going to lead to an increased flood risk. There’s a lot of snow across particularly northern parts of North Dakota which is noticable given the cold temperatures compared to elsewhere. Saturday may well be the warmest day but what’s interesting is while this may be warm, it may be warmer still next week.

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West, Then Plains & Midwest Heats Up

The Western United States is in for some significant warming in coming days thanks to a building ridge this weekend into early next week. It will almost certainly be the warmest weather thus far in Los Angeles where it may get close to 90 Monday while Las Vegas and Phoenix could top 100 with Death Valley likely to approach or exceed 110.

The cities of Salt Lake, Denver up through Boise and Cheyenne may all rise into the 80s early next week but it’s as a storm system drops into the NW and carves out a new trough that we see the heat transfer east towards mid next week. This may allow the first 90s of the year to reach Oklahoma City, Wichita, up towards St Louis while it cools down dramatically to the west.

Here’s Monday

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_72

Keep in mind the amount and depth of cold air still over central Canada, it’s as this heat builds ahead of the system and brings the warmest air of the year from LA to Chicago, must we watch the backside of the low once it reaches the Plains mid next week. The bitter cold over Saskatchewan and Manitoba will once again get pulled south, so we could see 80s drop back to 30s with snow in Salt Lake, Denver, Cheyenne to Rapid City. Even across the central Plains where it could well reach the 90s from Texas to Nebraska, a couple of days later, it may only be in the 40s with a cold rain mixed with sleet and snow.

Minneapolis and Chicago may reach the 80s next Wednesday but here too, watch out as a potent cold front swings through, suddenly highs may be stuck in the 30s with snow flakes flying.

Here’s Tuesday

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_96

Wednesday

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_120

By next Wednesday, while it’s back to winter over the central and northern Rockies, sunshine and a strong SW wind may be bringing Chicago their first 80s while it will have cooled off in Minneapolis with Tuesday likely to be the warmest day..

By Thursday, yet another lobe of unusual cold dives into the Northern Plains with highs struggling to reach freezing over North Dakota.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_144

Looking further down the road, the +PNA, -NAO and AO strongly suggests the trough holds over the central and Eastern US with heat focused from the Rockies west.

The GFS is bullish on driving a major early May cold shot into the Plains and eventually spreads it south and east, reaching Florida.

Given what we’ve seen and what there is with regards to snow and cold over Canada, this is very possible. DO NOT PLANT despite this weekend and next week’s warmth, more cold looms behind.

It’s another wild week of weather coming up. If you haven’t already, be sure to read my US post from last night which looks more at the May pattern, linkage to the quiet severe weather season so far and the potential of a big hurricane season coming up.

Here’s the 8-16 day GFS temperature outlook.

814temp_new

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