Yet Another Major Cold Shot Next Week For West, Plains, Concerns Over May! (Includes Video!)

Parts of the West are recovering after experiencing some exceptional April cold and believe it or not, this is not done despite the warm up taking place now. I know it’s frustrating, I hear ya, but this is one of those years where old man winter just does not want to make way for summer. Now I showed in my UK post earlier the NAO going strongly positive but looking longer term and beyond 10 days, it looks like it goes back into negative territory to end April and that means more troughiness in the East. Not good given how much cold remains over the heart of Canada which can feed down colder highs than otherwise would be expected for early May.

The real concern comes into May when a lot of flowers and veg are planted and indeed flurishing in this current warmth. The Mid-Atlantic was back well into the 80s again today and after a cooldown this weekend, the warmth comes roaring back next week. This will and is encouraging folks in these areas to go out and plant. Given this pattern, it’s screaming out, LATE FROSTS and FREEZES in areas that are warmest now and so we need to watch this carefully. It’s the amount and depth of cold in Canada and the projected pattern into May that can be joined up and has me concerned.

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As for the West and into the Plains, you’ve got more snow and cold to contend with next week, then, according to tonight’s run of the ECMWF, the trough with very cold air driving out of the northwest, slides east through the Midwest and eventually into the Northeast.

As an actual fact, there could be some pretty wild back and forth swings in the East in the 5-10 day along and extending into May. Just next week alone, we may well see more record heat focused on the Mid-Atlantic, then perhaps record lows by the weekend with maybe even some central Appalachia snowfall once that cold front swings through.

Here’s a glance at the ECMWF over the next 10 days and this shows the concerns I have.

Sat 13

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_48

As you can see, the upper flow flattens and the air mass becomes modified by a more zonal flow butcast your eyes on the PNW, the next system is pushing in with the squeezing of the isobars.

Mon 15

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_96

By Monday the upper low is sliding across the Northern Tier but notice the heat building over Texas with very warm 850s and likely a lot of mid 90s to low 100s at the surface but the trouble is that as that low to the north gets east of the Dakotas, the abundant reservoir of cold air over central Canada will once again get pulled south just as the heat gets going over Texas.I sense another wild temp spread coming up for the Plains with snows once again breaking out from the central Rockies to Dakotas.

Wed 17

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_144

Check that out for Wed above, deep trough once again digs deep into the Southwest with some very cold air once again driving down the Rockies, western Plains while hot air tries to push north. That’s a recipe for Southern Plains severe weather and another spread of 20-40 below normal for Denver vs 20+ above normal over the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Fri 19

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_192

By Friday, while the heat once again gets squashed BIG TIME over Texas with the passage of a sharp arctic front, perhaps with more 40-50 degree temp drops within 12-24 hours, just look at that trough and amount of cold spilling into the Upper and Lower Midwest. Amazing if that was to be as potent as this model suggests. Record cold for sure.

Sat 20

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_216

By next Saturday, the front swings through the Big Cities of the Mid-Atlantic, perhaps slicing DC and Baltimore’s upper 80s to near 90, back to the 40s and 50s. Night frosts and freezes would be a concern with what these charts are suggesting even for next week as nights under clear skies and with light winds and unusually cold air at 5,000ft, would suggest potentially 20s for the cities, low 20s, upper teens in the mountains of West Virginia, western Virginia and western Maryland following 80s.

Here’s the ECMWF snow projections right through next Wed.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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