Courtesy of ECMWF
The cold continues to deepen over the UK with models persisting in bringing in our coldest 5,000ft temperatures of the entire winter. Now that’s quite impressive given that it’s now Feb 21st. In saying that I recall seeing our second coldest night during last year (last winter), in May with a low of -6C. Stranger things have happened and really, it’s still February and the cold we’re set to endure this weekend was forecasted so it’s of no surprise what we’re seeing.
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There have been several nights this winter where conditions looked perfect for producing our coldest night of winter. We had snowcover, a nice cold air mass in place but cloud cover has been an issue. This winter has been snowier than normal but with a lot of ‘unsettled’ weather around, it’s not been all that cold. The coldest this year was -13.6C in Norfolk. That’s not that cold given how much snow we’ve seen. Had we gotten this very pattern we’re now seeing, with all that snow on the ground, we probably would have seen colder nights.
Back last weekend we saw high pressure sit parked overhead, this allowed temperatures to rise to 10+C with even a 13C reading in the NW Highlands. That very high pressure system pushed north and allowed cold over building over eastern Europe to spread west. After a few days in which long fetch east winds transported bitterly cold air from Russia and the Ukraine into the UK, the very wheel of high pressure responsible for opening the door to eastern Europe’s cold, will drift back over Scotland this weekend and over top of the cold air. This locks the cold underneath and if skies are clear enough, daytime highs will struggle to reach 0C from Inverness to Manchester this weekend while nighttime temperatures plunge to between -5 and -10C.
This weekend may rival some of the coldest weather of the entire winter but there are aspects which may hold temperatures up. The later time of year with higher sun angle may keep daytime temperatures slightly higher and the shorter nights may, slightly warmer by night. Cloud is always a possibility too.
However there is a chance that this spell of weather could be for some, the coldest of the winter despite a lack of snowcover.
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