Frigid Nights Ahead For Midwest, Northeast

Written by on December 31, 2012 in North and South America, United States of America with 0 Comments

After this weekend’s snow across the Midwest and Northeast, two shots of arctic air will follow. The first shot drops over the region tonight as a high builds overhead but this will be short lived as another system spreads northeast later Monday into New Years Day. That system will enhance clouds and may produce some snow showers for the East, so if your going to be ushering in the New Year in one of the Big Cities, don’t be surprised to see some flurry action. This won’t amount to much at all.

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With the exception of eastern Long Island and Cape Cod, the entire Northeast is now snow covered. According to NOAA’s snow analysis chart and figures, 99.3% is white and you can see it here in the chart below.

Source: NOAA

Source: NOAA

Now that is an impressive turnaround but the hand of winter has been heavy over the past couple of weeks with some Interior Northeast locales witnessing 3 snowstorms inside a week, that will quickly erase any memory of warmth during the first half of December.

Here is how the nation looks.

Source: NOAA

Source: NOAA

In the below pressure and precip chart you can see the powerful winter storm exiting out through the Maritimes while a cold NW flow drives arctic air across the snowpack of the Northeast.

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

 

By 6Z Monday, the high becomes established across the region so winds should slacken allowing a sharp drop off in temperature prior to dawn. The initial cold NW flow out of Canada will deliver the arctic air and so lows by dawn Monday should be near 20 for PHL, NYC, low 20s for DC, BALT and perhaps near 10 in BOS, 12 for Hartford. I expect teens for the suburbs of PHL and NYC.

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

This air mass will moderate again later Monday into early Tuesday as another southern based system heads northeast.

Here are expected lows by 6Z Monday off the GFS.

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

While tonight is the coldest of the season by far across the Northeast with lows over New England dipping below zero, this is nothing compared to the cold which drops down later Wednesday.

The mother of all arctic highs this year drops into the Midwest later Wednesday-Thursday and will send temps towards -10 in Minneapolis, 0 in Chicago and Thursday, Friday and Saturday night, lows may hit 10 in NYC, PHL while BOS pushes 0. This will be the coldest air in two years. Highs will stay in the mid single digits in Minneapolis while Chicago will finally break their record streak with above freezing days as it stays in the mid-teens Thursday.

I fly into Newark around midday Friday and following a very cold night, the temperature may still be in the teens for my arrival with WC’s in single digits.

Here is expected lows off the GFS for Tuesday night, think those lows over the Midwest and for Chicago is underdone.

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

By 144, core of cold is over the Northeast.

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

I will share some longer range thoughts later Monday. Stay tuned.

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