Colder Air Returns To Europe Next Week (Includes Video!)

Written by on December 28, 2012 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 3 Comments

8-russia

While the majority of Europe is mild with a westerly flow off the Atlantic, changes are afoot later next week as colder air is set to return to the east and north of the continent. If you live in Moscow and other eastern cities, enjoy the current mild spell as it’s living on borrowed time. You are likely returning to the freezer in about 5-7 days.

For us here in the UK and Ireland, many of you who may be freting about all this wind, rain and warm air. I continue to see comments in which people are writing off this winter. In this post I will show you why I don’t think January will be winter-free and in fact it may well get very cold in a couple of weeks from now.

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While I await the next ECMWF, I will show you the recent run. Check out the deepening trough and much colder air pushing back into the very areas which shivered for a good part of December. This is late next week.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_168

 

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_192

 

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_216

While I can understand if you were to come right back at me and say that the Azores high looks to dominate the UK just like we saw last year, there is other things going on which may bring some surprises to the unaware later on into January. Yes, the Azores high does look to hold strong, but I want to show you what’s going on up in the stratosphere.

We all know that the core of coldest weather has been positioned over the heart of Asia during December. In fact it has been so cold that there are reports which suggest that Siberia has endured it’s coldest December on record. Beijing is experiencing it’s worst winter conditions in at least 30 years and this may be one of the worst December’s for much of Asia in many years.

There is significant changes taking place up at the stratosphere level which will bring major changes. Asia has been turning milder and will continue to do so. The evidence below suggests that January shouldn’t be nearly as cold for the very areas which saw the worst during December.

Check out the initial strat temp chart. Note the warming over Asia, this is warming the heart of Asia but has pushed the core of coldest air into eastern Asia, this was responsible for bringing China severe and record cold.

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At 96 hours you can see the stratosphere significantly warming over Asia and the Asian side of the arctic. This should result in warming conditions for China and Mongolia but this pushes the coldest air on the planet out and where does it head for? North America and Europe. January should be much milder for areas which bore the brunt of the worst cold in December, places such as central Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and China.

gfs_t10_nh_f96

By 240 hours, there is strong strat warming over the Asian side of the pole and this suggests the coldest air heads both North America and Europe-bound. Does this mean the cold deffinately goes to the UK, no but if the cold expands over Europe like it’s likely to over the US, this may support a more negative NAO. I am simply showing you what others aren’t looking at and want you to at least see the potential for later down the road. Remember there is usually a 10-14 day lag between the strat warming and the release of arctic air into the mid-latitudes.

If the UK does see colder times, it’s likely to be after Jan 10, perhaps nearer the 15th.

gfs_t10_nh_f240

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3 Reader Comments

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  1. perry says:

    Very interesting times lay ahead fingers crossed for the cold to return. Nice to hear the passion back in your voice. Keep up the great work looking forward to the next update. Happy new year

  2. Jamie says:

    This is potentially bad news for the gas bill. The heating has been on since October.

    Hope you have a happy new year Mark.

  3. Michael says:

    Interesting times ahead, Mark!

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