Europe: Mild In The West, Cold In The East, Turnaround At Christmas? (Includes HD Video)

Written by on December 16, 2012 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 3 Comments

Milder it may be across Western Europe following a cold first 13 days of December but modelling is at least hinting at the next stage of my long term ideas, what are they? Cold start, then a respite but the cold ‘should’ return late month and towards New Year. The first half of the month was mild for Eastern Europe but folks from Poland on east into Russia are catching up with the coldest weather so far. Moscow is shivering with days and nights growing colder as frigid cold over the heart of Eurasian Russia bleeds west. In a nutshell, positive heights are over western Europe, lower heights in the east but I believe we may see a turnaround again near to Christmas with warming in the east. There remains a northern blocking high but it’s position is centered more over northeast Canada, not so much over Greenland. This will allow ridging to build over Iberia with positive heights extending north into the UK and Ireland.

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I always thought that a cold start to this month could be followed by a mild period prior to Christmas but given my study of this pattern, I didn’t think it would last and when going by multiple medium range models, there is agreement in a return to a colder pattern for the UK and Ireland.

Lack of snowcover during the early Dec pattern I believe made the cold ‘transient’. If you notice a post I put up on facebook earlier today, I mention the ‘power of snowcover’ with near -20F temperatures over Northern Maine while it was a balmy 46F in New York City. The arctic air weakens till it’s nonexistant as it crosses snow then bare ground! Had we seen a significant and widespread snowfall say late in November, our cold would not only have been much more severe but it likely would have stuck around without any mild air, therefore giving us a sustained period of very cold weather for at least 2 weeks.

Timing of any cold in terms of arrival, severity and duration we all know can be tough to call but I want to show you a few examples of what the models are showing just before and after Christmas and towards New Year.

The next 7 days doesn’t have anything particularly cold except for a few nights of frost perhaps thanks to clear skies and light winds. We look to have a settled period mid week before another system arrives late in the week.

Next 7-10 days across Europe

The models are in good agreement that a push of abnormal warmth will run across the UK and Ireland between Dec 21-24th. This strong southwest push of warmth looks to force a stronger push of Siberian cold from the heart of Russia, Kazakhstan westwards into eastern Europe, so if correct, watch out from points east of Moscow, through the Russian capital southwestwards into the Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria. Heavy snow could be coupled or followed by daytime temperatures -10 to -15C, lows of -18 to -30C is possible with this setup.

In the west, unusually mild temperatures could bring highs of 10-15C for parts of Ireland and the UK, strikingly similar to Christmas Day 2011 but do not fret.

While this happens.

Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

Christmas to New Year’s Day period!

This may follow on Boxing Day and the 27th!

Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the ECMWF Deterministic. Note it, like the Control run sees the Pre-Christmas warmth around the 23rd with very cold air punching into Southeast Europe, then the cold hammer drops over the UK around Boxing Day, warming for eastern Europe.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_168Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_240

What about snow? Considering the warming in the run up to Christmas, I think it’s safe to say there will be no white Christmas for the UK or Ireland this year, like last. I never felt too confident about a white Christmas this year given my early cold and warming turnaround BEFORE Christmas but what about the week between Christmas and New Year?

Here’s Christmas Day. Given setup, no surprise that western Europe is largely bare but given the push of cold into the east, there’s a good covering from the Alps on east and southeast. White Christmas for here!

Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

Here’s Dec 30. Interesting but this is NO GUIDE this far out.

Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

The GFS in recent times have been much more overdone when it comes to snow but what’s it saying for this period?

Wow, nothing!

Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

Interestingly, by Jan 1, it shows snow for the UK but heck this is 384 hours out.

Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

Up until Dec 30th the ECMWF Control shows very little snow for the UK but by the second last day of 2012, snow is seen covering a large part of the UK while the GFS has nothing, but it shows snow by Jan 1st. Of course these models showed plenty of snowcover for early December and this do not happen. When looking 300+ hours out, you can’t trust the models at all but always interesting to have a look nonetheless. However, lets just keep our eyes on the period from Boxing day onwards for the return of a colder pattern and perhaps snow. If this happens, this will fit nicely with my forecast. Remember that I have said all along that the worst of winter would come after Christmas and likely after New Year.

I believe we ‘should’ see colder times before the end of 2012. Whether this comes and more importantly whether it lasts remains to be seen but at the very least, the models have optimisim for the western European winter weather lover just after Christmas.

Another thing I want to add is, even at 7-10 days, never mind further out, models can change dramatically, we have seen this first hand during the early part of the month, we could even see a colder Christmas but likewise we could also see a milder boxing day and week leading up to New Year. What I am seeing I will share with you and keep you updated frequently.

ECMWF 500mb Heights over Northern Hemisphere

Finally I want to show you this 500 mb heights looking over top of the hemisphere.

Note the first chart for Sun 23rd the strong positive centred between Canada and Greenland with another, weather positive over Scandinavia, but another strong positive over Iberia which extends mild air up into the UK.

Courtesy/Owned by Weatherbell Models

Courtesy/Owned by Weatherbell Models

The below chart which is for Boxing Day shows a broader NE Canada/W Greenland block but notice that both positives over Scandinavia and more importantly, the over Iberia are gone. That ridge over Iberia shifts east into SE Europe and that allows sharp height falls into the UK and Ireland without that block to stop it.

Courtesy/Owned by Weatherbell Models

Courtesy/Owned by Weatherbell Models

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  1. Linda says:

    Thanks Mark, love the cat in the background 🙂 l

  2. calum says:

    Brilliantly detailed video Mark, love it. You’ve been spot on so far with winter. I’ve got complete faith in you that our cold will return End Dec/Start Jan. I’m also hoping (very limited knowledge on the subject) that the predicted SSW event will just add to the occasion in splitting the PV in early Jan.
    Starting to think we really could be in for it come early 2013!
    Very Very interesting such laughably high temps forecasted for the 23rd as so often the UK seems to go from one extreme to another, it would be just like the UK to go from +15 to -15 in a week.

  3. david says:

    Mark there seems to be a problem with the video,now tried to run it 3 times but it keeps stopping about a third of the way through.

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