The mild will continue in the East over the next 72 hours as ridging pushes through, however the above normal warmth is in and out quickly as that system bringing all the heavy rains and mountain snows Out West will advance east, reaching the Ohio Valley by Tuesday and the coast by Wednesday.
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In the chart below, note the 540 line dropping into Kentucky, this system should tap enough cold which is never far away (from the international border northwards) and I expect snows to break out in a corridor from Indiana through Ohio and into western PA.
Courtesy/Owned by Weatherbell Models
By Wednesday the system is on or just off the Northeast coast and will deepen, perhaps to sub-990mb. Notice how it drags the 540 line offshore with the 534 line diving into eastern LI and covers coastal New England. Enough cold air will get pulled in by this system, especially if it deepens substantially off the coast, to bring a 2-4 inch swath of snow from just southwest of Philadelphia, northeastwards, perhaps whitening cities just west of NYC and across Hartford, Providence, Boston up to Bangor. While I think Hartford, Providence and Boston could get a few inches out of this with the core of snow (3-6 inches) stays to the west over the mountains, I think it’s a close call but PHL and NYC may see initial rain turn over to snow with perhaps all snow over the western burbs.
Courtesy/Owned by Weatherbell Models
As you well know, exact track and timing can be everything and there is all to play for with the midweek storm.
As for the cold, we can see it skirting the far north with much of the nation, fairly mild but when looking further down the road, this can’t last. The good thing with this pattern as compared to last year, is that while it’s been mild, the cold, air has never been far away, so systems crossing the country have been able to tap this cold and bring Northern Tier snows. Models show a downward trend towards Christmas and after next week’s system, there’s another in the days leading to Christmas.
The ECMWF has been persistent is bringing a much colder scenario into the mix for the second system around Dec 22/23 and it wouldn’t surprise me if we see more snow across a broader area of the Northeast, reaching much further south.
Just take a look at those thicknesses for the second system on Dec 22 below. Ouch!! This could bring a last minute white Christmas all the way to ‘south’ of DC. Plenty of cold throughout would mean ALL SNOW if this has merit.
Courtesy/Owned by Weatherbell Models
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