I think it’s safe to say that the first 13 days of December and to a lesser degree, 14, give or take a day or two, has been on the cold side UK and Ireland wide. There will of course be one or two that would argue that but what you cannot argue with is the average temperature vs the departure from normal. Like I’ve said before and will say again, this is nothing like last year.In reflection to my forecast which is no guarentee, for those looking for that guarentee, your in the wrong place and I’m affraid you won’t find it.[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Always keep in mind that when I called for this early start to winter, this was based on hard study and not on short, medium or long range models. We all know how up and down the models can be, that’s why I base my forecasts on other things. I use the models as guidance in the near term to see if my original ideas are playing out and have merit but they’re not the be all and end all. Nor will I say they are useless either. They’re simply a tool.

I called for cold 4 months beforehand and while I was dissapointed in some aspects, I am pleased with certain factors, the primary being that it was actually cold. It wasn’t as severe nor locked in or as snowy but it was pretty cold.

We had sporadic snowfalls, plenty of ice and persistent night frosts which did not dissappear during the day. I recon, had we seen one big, widespread snowfall, I think the equation may have turned out differently. Sometimes if you don’t get one aspect, it can domino. Had we seen a large and widespread snow, the cold air would have been far more intense with colder nights and with colder nights comes much colder days too. This setup may have evolved differently. It’s not all about getting it right or wrong. Anyone can forecast 2, 3, 4 days in advance but for me it’s recognising potential in a pattern long before models show it. Way too often do I see forecasters base everything on models and they go from one extreme to the other. Notice how I didn’t change but held off. Don’t get me wrong, if it obvious something isn’t going to happen I will pull the plug and tell you. I am not going to back down on ‘months’ of work. If you believe in something, you stand by it. This time around, the lack of snow, helped the pattern move along in transient fashion.

What’s Ahead

While dissapointed with some aspects, I am pleased that it was cold. When you go back and look at my ideas for December, you’ll notice that I called for cold but a potential relaxation prior to Christmas. The cold has now broken and looking out between now and Christmas, it looks less cold but may not be all that mild either.

The NAO ensembles are practically showing a 50/50 for positive or negative through the remainder of December but I do believe that we will see a return to a more negative NAO by months end, maybe even around Christmas.

The next 7-10 days does appear to be more active and westerly but there is plenty of cold air around including a substantial cold pool to our northeast over Scandinavia and western Russia. Folks here and across a large swath of Europe will end this month below normal with more snow.

We should pay attention to that cold over western Russia extending into Scandinavia and the possibility of a more negative NAO towards Christmas and New Year. I think the backside’s of storm systems need to be watched for cold and even snowfall. The North Atlantic has a ‘cold zonal flow’ and so, this could bring a up and down temperature profile to the UK through the remainder of December but lets watch Scandinavia. Will be interesting to see whether this cold begins to creep our way towards Christmas and New Year.

I think January and February could bring us plenty of winter.

See the below ECMWF charts. I shall share more soon.

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