Cold Expands/Intensifies Across Europe, Including the UK/Ireland (Video Included!)

Written by on December 2, 2012 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Videos with 11 Comments

The models are turning increasingly colder with each run for the next 2 weeks across Europe and this week ahead looks tough for travellers across the continent as heavy snow will cause widespread disruption. The building cold will plunge millions into the deep freeze by week two and while cold this week, next week will be colder and it may not be just confined to the mainland, we also may get in on some even colder weather than we’ve got now. A lot of that may be thanks to snow on the ground and a westward push of Siberian air. While I am not saying this is one solid coldwave for the UK and Ireland, going by what I am seeing now I do think anything mild will be short lived and may just help to whitten our landscape which will lay out the tracks for the Siberian express to run across.

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When looking continent-wide. it looks like there’s no break through at least mid-month. The way this pattern is evolving, this has all the earmarks of December 2010 written all over it.

Folks, remember what I’ve been saying all along, for months now.. this cold would start chipping away at the mild, wet pattern late November and it would come in stages. I stated clearly that once we enter December we SHOULD see collisions of mild and arctic air which should lay down the white carpet and by week two, a push of major cold was possible for the UK.. Many kept harping on about how mild this week would be following one or two days of colder weather. Interestingly models have retreated and mouths are silenced. The models show a colder look because they physically see the growing snowcover and building of cold. Until they see that, they struggle to foresee a pattern.

While I was getting hammered for ‘hyping’, I quietly worked away and stood by my ideas despite what models were saying. While we titter oin the eddge for the next 7 days I think we need to look broader, look at what’s evolving across Europe, look at the behaviour of the ridge to our west and watch how it comes and goes. The thing is, the only way we’re really going to see snow is if the mild Atlantic air comes through with moisture. Our mousture won’t come from the east and so we WANT to see the push of mild and once the snow lays out, so the cold will gain more ground. I’ve worked hard on all since last summer and still believe that colder times are ahead for us.

Below is the ECMWF snow forecast for Mon and even for way out to 240 days, 10 days from now, the chart has even more snow covering the UK as well as Europe.

Here’s the ECMWF 06Z snow chart for Mon. (Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro)

Here’s the ECMWF looking all the way out to day 10 (240 hrs) and not only is the snow still there over the UK, it expands south!! Look at Europe.. (Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro)

Could Coming Cold Resemble Dec 2010 For The UK & Feb 2012 For Parts of Europe?

It will be another cold week for the UK with two Atlantic fronts attempting to break the cold. The first arrives tonight and another arrives late week. In between these systems it will be as cold, if not colder than what we’ve seen so far. Have you noticed that the blocking high has been west, not over us and this is coming and going. Keep in mind that as snowcover grows across Europe, so the cold builds but also expands, the ridge to our west is transient, sloshes back and forth and so with the cold likely to be the more dominant feature, so that ridge should back away. Dec 10-20 could see similar conditions to December 2010. There is however things that can go wrong, the ridge may hold more than I thought, we may remain on the cusp and the cold could be tranbsient. The cold may even be less severe than I think. Plenty of things can happen between now and next weekend but you’ve at least got the ideas I have in front of you and for all you winter weather lovers out there like myself who wish for a Decem,ber 2010 repeat, here’s hoping these ideas are correct.

The below charts shows minimum temperatures the NCEP GFS is portraying for Friday 7 and Mon 10th. Folks, this suggests some brutally cold nights to come for a large swath of Europe. With the help of snowcovered ground, these numbers are highly likely. A LARGE SWATH OF BRITAIN could be snowcovered by this time next weekend…

Brrrrrr! This is the 06Z NCEP GFS Temps Friday AM (Dec 7).. (Courtesy/Owned by Weatherbell Models))

OUCH! Here’s the 06Z NCEP GFS Temps for Day 8 on Mon Dec 10.. (Courtesy/Owned by Weatherbell Models)

The upcoming week shows striking similarity to 2010 where even during the heart of the bitter cold wave which killed hundreds and broke all kinds of cold and snow records all across Europe. England of course did see a very cold spell for about 10 days in February which sent temperatures down to -16C in Lincolnshire but Scotland, Wales and Ireland didn’t get in on this cold at all. The real cold got as far west and as close to us as Belgium where they shivered in the worst cold period since 1941.

Temperatures in the east of the country near to the German border dropped to -22C. Even Amsterdam, Netherlands hit -18C with temperatures reaching record -20C or colder levels across many inland parts. These, like in Belgium were amongst the coldest in many years. A new all-time national cold record was set in Belgium. While I’ve frequently made mention about the MILD winter in the UK last year, I do not forget the severity of last winter throughout Europe, it was one of the worst in living memory with frequent lows of between -20 and -40C from Germany southwards through the Alps and east through Poland into Russia and down into Southeast Europe. Massive snows in Northern Italy broke records while they also cut off villages in the SE for weeks.

Check out these temperature anomaly charts for the next 7 and next 16 days off the NCEP GFS! VERY IMPRESSIVE COLD FOR A LARGE SWATH OF EUROPE!

Next 7 days!

Courtesy/Owned by Weatherbell Models

Next 16 days!

Courtesy/Owned by Weatherbell Models

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  1. julie says:

    Hmmmm snow showers here this morning in Kerry ok so not 3 inches deep or anything but better than nothing,clear skies and chilly in between showers not staying on the ground for long still nade me want to light the fire before lads get up for school!lol

  2. julie says:

    Aaaah does not look like any snow for us in any part of Ireland! we have no chance at all here in the south west oh well I suppose more of the same mild murky winters!

  3. barry says:

    Not holding my breath for some of the white stuff down here in Plymouth ,but I live in hope .maybe I’ll do my snow dance in the rain 🙂 good work mark as allways

  4. perry says:

    another fantastic update fingers crossed it goes this way got a new snowboard that needs a run out. keep up the good work and looking forward to the next update

  5. Jamie says:

    Thank goodness, the snow has been cancelled for Scotland?!

  6. Paul says:

    Hi Mark. Well done so far with forecast, your posts are great. It’s a shame though that Ireland will not do that well as regards snow on this setup, if there is moisture it will rain here. As on the image no snow. It seems we are generally the only country not to get the white stuff. Then again, you just never know. Keep up the good work Mark

  7. Linda says:

    Well done Mark, a really informative and interesting update , great work 🙂

  8. Jamie says:

    Friday evening presented with a temperature of 1 degrees C and rain more than sleet here at Castle Douglas. This turned to sleet and deposited a layer of slush. This soon froze solid and since then I’ve had this layer of ice on my lawn.
    I see the same thing happening tonight here at Castle Douglas. However, I hope for a freak snowfall which cuts off the driveway to the abode. Living in such a large castle, I frequently wear the attire you chose to open the video with. I’m afraid the heat given off by my open fire does little for warming ones bones.

    Thanks for an enjoyable video.

  9. john says:

    Mark looks like east ireland sees no snow

  10. Michael says:

    Cool intro with the winter clothes, Mark:D It’s looking very promising regarding cold and snow for the next couple of weeks for much of Europe and the UK. Last night we had 4 inches of snow here west of Copenhagen…a few locations in Jutland even had 16 inches. But the general picture is 2-4 inches at most locations untill now. It’s currently -3 with the late afternoon sun glistening reddish in the snow. I just love it!
    Keep up the good work. You’ve been spot on so far;)

  11. john says:

    well done m8 thanks for all the hard work you have done this year and the spot on weather reports . keep up the good work : )

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