ECMWF Paints ‘Brrrrrrr’ Picture For UK!

Written by on November 22, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 11 Comments

The ECMWF is on the right track for next week. Check out the maps below, now this is what you call a step down pattern shift. Next week will be a progression transition as a huge 1026 mb high expands north, growing to 1032 as it joins with another high up over Greenland, shutting off the classic westerly flow off the Atlantic into Ireland and the UK. By this time next week, many of us could well be contending with snow. Atlantic air will work underneath this block and try to push into the Atlantic, only to be met by colder air coming down from the north, northeast.

As for the real cold, I believe that comes week 2 of December. This pattern is LIKELY to stay once it evolves as the high should join forces with a ridge building north from eastern Siberia, locking the cold air south over the mid-latitudes. You only have to look at where both the NAO and AO is going. BOTH are really going into the tank.

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A few important notes!

For those of you who scratched their heads back in early November when the NAO/AO went positive. The cold that’s coming, wouldn’t be as strong if it weren’t for the past 3 weeks of having a strong polar vortex, a setup which allowed for cold air production within the source region.

This transition will be bumpy and therefore we could well see FREQUENT pushes of Atlantic air while arctic air fights to gain ground. That setup should allow the snow cover to expand. While Britain and Ireland is in the battleground between warm and cold, the motherlode of cold will be building south over Scandinavia and in about 15 days, should swing in from the NE and bring us a brutal spell of cold weather.


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11 Reader Comments

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  1. julie says:

    felt first real cold this year here traveling from Ennis co Clare home to Kerry it was at 2 degrees no sign of rain really nice to get a break from the misty muggy weather!

  2. Michael says:

    What do you make of the latest run from ECWMF, Mark? The cold next week seems rather short lifed as the Atlantic kicks in afterwards. The same with GFS 06Z. The GFS Ensemble is still okay – the mean is below the 30 year mean from December 1. and onwards. And I am still waiting for the ensemble from ECMWF for the 0Z run. I hope its colder than the operational run. I won’t worry too much, if the ensemble is still cold with a block positioned across the North Atlantic. But if the ensembles start to show the same tendency…well, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens.
    The NAO and AO indices still looking good, by the way, so that’s positive:)

  3. Sean says:

    Yeah great work Mark

  4. Rosalind says:

    Great work, really surprised that Piers C. is predicting a mild December – no word of cold in his forecast – everyone else seems to think it will be cold with snow, any ideas as to what he is thinking?

  5. Rosalind says:

    Great work Mark, really surprised that Piers C. is predicting a mild December – no word of cold in his forecast – everyone else seems to think it will be cold with snow, any ideas as to what he is thinking?

  6. perry says:

    Very exciting times lays ahead of us and this is even before winter starts. Looking forward to the next update

  7. eliott says:

    Can’t wait well done mate

  8. julie says:

    Thanks Mark I enjoy your forecasts very much will be following closely how the weather will unfold,no matter what the amount of work you put into this is unreal!

  9. calum says:

    Both ECM and GFS just keep getting better and better. GFS is locked down cold for a full run now! (as far as I can tell) Keep us posted!

  10. Penny says:

    brace ourselves for a big freeze!!!!!

  11. gary says:

    been following you now for about 2 years and not a bit surprised that this year is going to be cold.
    whatever happens this winter into the new year you should be commended for you tireless effort in the weather
    world which you clearly enjoy ….
    Keep up the good work mark

    🙂

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