The Pacific jet has significantly strenghened over the past few days and over the next 7 days, we will see one storm after the other slam the Pacific Northwest but this unsettled weather with wind, rain, surf and mountain snows, extends down the coast. Expect soaking rains down through San Francisco and likely even Los Angeles.
As for Washington and Oregon, they will get hammered by a series of Pacific storms. This is the first time we’ve seen this activity in this region for quite some time and it’s going to be a soak and soaker to the system. Models show 8+ inches of rain along the coastal plain from the Puget Sound to Portland.
Here’s the GFS surface, precip chart for early tomorrow. Notice the high bringing settled but cool weather across the East.
By Sunday, a 976 mb low spins just off the BC coast and is sending rains down the California coast to LA and possibly San Diego. Heavy rains in northern California will spread into the Sacramento Valley, may bring snows to the mountains above 8,000ft. Also expect heavy surg along the coast
The mountains are likely to capture much of the moisture while winds dry as they cross the interior mountains. By the time these powerful west winds cross the Rockies and descend the other side, they will bring chinook warming to the western high plains with western South Dakota likely to push the 70s, maybe 80s early next week.
Monday sees a 984 mb low spining off the BC coast, continuing to drive moisture onshore and down the coast, influencing weather down to at least the central coast if not, Socal. If you live in LA and San Diego, have your unberella handy this weekend and even early next week!
Here’s the ECMWF upper chart and 850 temps for next Wednesday.
Notice the w,sw flow across the continent with a shallow trough in the PNW. This setup keeps the air moving fast across the country and it will be mild. All the arctic air will remain bottled up over the arctic.
Also notice the pale organges showing over the Plains at 850, this is the model seeing the warming influence of the downsloping west winds.
Troublesome Set-Up In The East
In the east, there is trouble building for the coastline as a low continues to form off the Carolina coast while a high continues to stretch out from the Appalachains all the way up through the Maritimes to Newfoundland and out into the Atlantic. This ridge is not only growing southwest to northeast but it’s strengthening also with pressure up at 1032. Models show this going 1040 and with low pressure to it’s south, winds will continue to blow strong to gale-force across a 1,000+ mile stretch of ocean, towards shore. A steady wind blowing across that stretch of ocean means a large runway for waves to build before crashing into the beaches of Florida up to the Jersey shore.
Reports are already coming through along with pictures of beach erosion along Florida’s Atlantic coast.
The trouble is that with the high, the low goes nowhere over the next 5-7 days and that means 10-25ft waves brought alonshore by strong to gale-force winds out of the e,ne and it could spell disaster for the beaches not only severaly damaged by Sandy but down to Florida, the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.
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