Complex Storm Track Keeps UK Weather Lively Next Week

Written by on November 17, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Here are a bunch of GFS surface charts which show low pressure as the dominant feature of the UK and Ireland weather map over the next 10 days. The charts below extend out through mid next week but what’s interesting is the amount of individual low pressure centres spinning within one huge low pressure trough.

Following a wet day today, calming takes place Saturday thanks to a small ridge building in. This sets the stage for clear skies and light winds tomorrow night and with cold air aloft, a widespread frost can be expected with many dipping below freezing to start off Sunday but it’s all change again by Sunday afternoon and evening.
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The pattern is highly influenced by the Atlantic with a rather deep trough centred just the west of the UK. A strong ridge over eastern Europe will keep the trough axis to our west but not west enough that lows can’t cross over us. Sunday night into Monday will see the first of several hit over the next 7-10 days. The first low appears to pass and graze the northwest coast of Scotland but with pressure expected to drop to 980 mb, howlling southwest winds could bring gales to not only the coast but inland too. A spell of heavy rain along with strong winds will bring a messy Monday morning commute for many.

Tuesday sees the isobars open up but another small low pressure centre crosses the southern half of the UK.

By Wednesday, a 3rd low pushes up from the southwest and grazes the northwest corner of Scotland. The latest run of the GFS has pressure with this low down at around 980 mb too. The presence of the low will jack up the persistent southwest winds back up to strong or gale-force once again across inland areas of the UK and Ireland.

While the system Wednesday brings yet more rain and increased winds, another low is deepening to it’s southwest and will follow for a hit on southern England next Friday.

Exact track of the mid and late week systems are uncertain but all in all, it’s a very unsettled setup with multiple lows set to develop and significantly influence the UK and Ireland weather regime next week.

Here’s next Friday’s low with pressure down at 992 over the south coast of England.

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