While a sprawling upper ridge builds across Europe this week promoting mild, sunny days but misty, murky, foggy and chilly nights, this extends northwest into the southern half of the UK.
While temperatures range 2-4C above normal throughout the UK, it’s Scotland which will unfortunately be positioned beneath a far reaching frontal boundary which separates the large vortex of low pressure over the North Atlantic from the huge ridge over Europe. A steady stream of moisture will take aim at Scotland starting tonight and will likely continue through Mon, Tues and Wed and perhaps not clearly till Thursday. The question for England and Wales will be how much cloud there is as the series of embedded fronts could bring gloomy but dry and mild days to much of England and Wales thanks to the presence of high pressure.
The below GFS precipitation charts clearly show the unbroken and steadty stream of moisture extending from the central Atlantic up into western Scotland.
Be prepared for localised flooding as this persistent rain, accompanied by periodic strong, SW winds, will mount up the rain totals. This was a set-up I was concerned about fo0r this month with a +NAO in place.
By Thursday, high pressure builds north, allowing some respite from all the rain across western and central Scotland. Friday is looking good but again, the question is how much cloud do we see.
This week should be mainly frost free thanks to cloud, rain and a mild and moist SW flow.
By this weekend, the GFS has another low sliding west to east between Scotland and Iceland and the front associated with this low does appear to sweep a band of heavy rain into Scotland from the northwest and looks to sink southeast bringing a period of heavy and persistent rain to all areas of the UK.
Here’s a look at the upper chart and 850 temps off the ECMWF for the week ahead.
Cheers Mark. Thanks
Hi Mark. Great video & write up thanks. You mentioned Cold air to be over uk the 1st 2 weeks of Dec, Will this colder air push over ALL of Ireland to and if so will there be snow with it? Cheers Mark.
I expect the cold to cover Ireland and there will be snow. Exactly where and how much is impossible to tell right now.