I’m finally getting back to looking at the models and the UK weather pattern after what has been an unbelievable week of weather for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic US.

It’s going to take a long time for this region to return to some sort of normality and my thoughts and prayers continue to be with them.

Having lived on 2.5 hours of sleep every night this week, I am glad to have today off, giving me a chance to recharge some and get a post and video on the UK up for you.

Cold Northwest Flow To Give Way To Mild Southwest Flow Next Week

 

The weekend and early next week looks to hold onto the unsettled and chilly theme thanks to a stubborn and persistent trough with a cold NW flow. Areas of low pressure embedded within the flow are keeping us unsettled..

A slow moving low will slide across the southern UK through this weekend and by later Sunday into Monday, that low should be to the east and out over the North Sea. The position of the low means colder air drops south early next week.

If the GFS is correct , the focus of wettest and windiest late this weekend into early next week should be over the southern UK. Isobars look more spread out in the north, so expect better weather for Scotland and Northern Ireland but it will be chilly despite any brightness and nights may get very cold beneath clear skies and light winds

NAO Returning To Positive Territory

The ensembles continue to show a recovery from the negative NAO and once we get into next week, both ECMWF and GFS have a ridge trying to build into the UK and Ireland from the southwest. This would cut off that nagging NW flow and allow milder air to come up from the SW but the question remains, do we get a break from low pressure at the surface?

With signs of a more neutral and potentially positive NAO over the next 7-10 days onwards, the pattern will become more active with heavy rains and stronger winds as warm and cold come together, forcing a stronger jet and more pile up of air into developing troughs. Watch for mild followed by cold with this wetup. The temperature rollercoaster may begin next week.

For those wishing a warm winter, excitement and lots of talk will show on facebook as the NAO flips. Those hoping for the coming of the next ice age. Well, they will start writing winter off after talk of a 1962-63 style winter looking likely. Patience and understanding of what is going on will pay off, folks. Let the pattern and atmosphere do what it’s suppose to do and winter will come.

Talk of an Azores high dominated winter will and is already getting raised too. Let me just tell you, that I have stated time and time again that this years pattern doesn’t reflect a blocking high focused over the UK. We don’t have dry ground to favour positive height feedback. Last autumn, ridging, not troughiness was the dominated setup over us and so this suggested a nonewinter for the UK but that very block near us, allowed the cold to fill Europe but stop where the continent meet the North Sea. Of course there was a 10 day spell of bitter cold over England but Scotland didn’t get in on this due to the high.

This year is opposite and much more similar to 2009. Remember November 2009, how mild and wet it was? Once the cold hit around December 18th, it stuck around. Then it returned in January, stronger than it was in December, then it returned in February and even March.

The warmest waters compared to normal across the North Atlantic basin are centred from the north Atlantic to Newfoundland. This favours positive heights this winter here and negative heights over us. Had we seen a drier summer, a dominant +NAO and well above normal watertemperatures surrounding the UK, then I would say there was something to worry about. Everything I am seeing, points to a winter which will see plenty of cold and snow. Like my winter forecast says. There will be mild periods but the cold will outweigh the mild.