Over the past few months I am worked tirelessly to predict this upcoming winter and while you have received my initial thoughts and ideas, here is the final product: my official UK Winter Forecast 2012-13.
Whilst this forecast sets out how I anticipate this winter to be, I want to stress that this is the kind of winter that has tremendous potential for something special. However, we live in a part of the world where there can be a fine line between a bitter cold and a nothing special. This is what occurred last year. I have pointed out previously, what can go wrong with a forecast of this nature to show that there is no bias.
I have studied last year’s winter, trying to learn from it and understand what took place. In doing so, I hope that by learning from mistakes, this will help improve the accuracy of this year’s forecast. I firmly believe that this winter should be nothing like last year’s. For instance, the ocean temperatures are different, the mean ridges and troughs are different and our summer has been very wet. To reiterate the teachings of Joe Bastardi, where the wettest weather occurs during summer and autumn, the cold should go right to that very same area.
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