Official UK Winter Forecast 2012-13

Written by on November 1, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 11 Comments

Over the past few months I am worked tirelessly to predict this upcoming winter and while you have received my initial thoughts and ideas, here is the final product: my official UK Winter Forecast 2012-13.

Courtesy of Mark Vogan

Whilst this forecast sets out how I anticipate this winter to be, I want to stress that this is the kind of winter that has tremendous potential for something special. However, we live in a part of the world where there can be a fine line between a bitter cold and a nothing special. This is what occurred last year. I have pointed out previously, what can go wrong with a forecast of this nature to show that there is no bias.

I have studied last year’s winter, trying to learn from it and understand what took place. In doing so, I hope that by learning from mistakes, this will  help improve the accuracy of this year’s forecast.  I firmly believe that this winter should be nothing like last year’s. For instance, the ocean temperatures are  different, the mean ridges and troughs are different and our summer has been very wet. To reiterate the teachings of Joe Bastardi, where the wettest weather occurs during summer and autumn, the cold should go right to that very same area.

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Gone is the La Nina which brought drought, followed by the El Nino which brought the return to a much wetter summer. The tendency for the blocking over Greenland and the fact that the pattern has good similarity to 2009-10 should mean a winter more like that year and the start of 2010-11.

Globally, the pattern is very different to last year. El Nino’s effects were made known back in April and this set the stage for a very wet summer following a back to back La Nina, which I believe caused the drought and warm winter last year. This summer’s pattern is similar to 2009 with the weak El Nino, persistent -NAO and the wet summer, and we know how the winter of 2009 followed.

Overview

I expect to see a winter season dominated by high-latitude blocking over Greenland and the polar region. This would support a ridge over the North Atlantic and a trough over Western Europe, giving a high probability of a cold to very cold winter ahead. The question is, not so much whether it will be cold but, how cold?

The UK and Ireland should experience a decent spell of winter weather before Christmas. However, as you would expect, while we should see three to four prolonged spells of cold or very cold weather, with periodic snow, there will be mild spells in between and there may also be a period of a few weeks where winter appears to disappear. This is likely to happen towards New Year.

As of this publication, I believe there will be a period of at least ten days during November where it should be mild and very wet with a zonal flow, with all the cold bottled up over the pole. This should get those who are wanting a ‘warm winter’ excited. I am already receiving comments on Facebook about the lack of winter coming ,simply based on the fact that November won’t be the ice-age many have thought and hyped. I have explained why I simply can’t see a particularly bad November but there is the chance of an up and down month that is likely to be mild, wet and possibly cold at some point . The return of mildness but with an increased risk of storminess would be down to a positive NAO and AO, a period needed for Arctic air to reload after bringing periods of unseasonable cold during autumn.

Cold & Snow Likely Mid-December Onwards

December 10th onwards, looks to be a prime time for the UK and Western Europe to experience it’s first glimpse of real cold and snow. This, as was the case in 2009, could strike suddenly without warning after what may be a very mild end to November. Watch as the NAO gradually returns to neutral and then positive by the second week. This will suggest no winter in sight! That indeed happened in 2009 and I truly believe it could well happen again. Also watch out for significant flooding and storminess around this time.

Expect a period of heavy snow initially across Northern areas of the UK, and possibly Ireland, but as we progress through mid-December and the cold air grows, snow will spread south. Following a period of perhaps a week with on/off snow, our first Arctic blast may follow thereafter. During the day, temperatures may have a hard time hitting freezing, whilst at night, under clear skies and with snow covered ground, temperatures may plunge widely below -6 to -10C, with parts of the Highlands dipping further.

Scandinavia will be beneath the core of the trough, so extremely cold weather will dominate.

Will There Be A White Christmas?

As it stands, while I see a cold period onwards from around December 10th, it’s all in the timing of this period of cold. We could well see a recovery in temperatures as the pattern may try to flip back for a short period. Duration of cold will be hard to pinpoint but while I see a cold blast before the middle of the month, the question is how long will it last. It may well last through Christmas.

At this moment, I consider the chance of a White Christmas to be:

  • Much of Scotland and parts of northern England – 70%
  • Midlands, eastern England, north and mid-Wales and, Northern Ireland – 55%
  • South-east England and southern Ireland – 50%
  • South-west England – 45%

Worst Of Winter in January

I believe the very worst of winter to come after New Year, following a return to mildness. A period from the first or second week of January right through until around the start of February may see a major stratospheric warming event. In this event, after a reload period of Arctic air over the pole, a major shift takes place with warm air and positive heights flooding the north, whilst a major Arctic cold surge floods the south. This may present a locked-down cold spell which brings a test of endurance for the UK and Ireland.

It will be this spell which presents the coldest temperatures with much of inner Britain perhaps failing to hit freezing temperatures for several days. With widespread snow-cover and an Arctic high in place, we could also see many towns and cities dip to -10C, with rural areas falling towards -15C, whilst the Highland Glens could hit -20 to -24C.

This cold spell may last between ten to fifteen days.

Tame Start to February but Arctic Air Likely to Follow

While we see a mild spell during the later part of December, I believe another recovery in temperature and breakdown in blocking arrives in the closing days of January or early February. This may lead to a slightly mild start to February but I believe winter may have one last significant cold spell in store. Sometime between February 10th and February 25th, a third major Arctic blast could bring more heavy snow and bitter cold.

The March-April period can tend to be colder than normal during El Nino years, however I question whether the El Nino will still be around in March 2013. Time will tell!

As for other parts of Europe. If you live in Scandinavia, this could be a record cold winter with few mild spells. The Arctic cold should impact France, the Low Countries and much of Germany but for eastern and south-eastern areas, I believe there will be a break after recent cold winters, including last years brutal encounter.

Courtesy of Mark Vogan

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11 Reader Comments

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  1. Ian says:

    Hello

    Any update on Jan / Feb

  2. julie says:

    hi Mark I know this was written over a month ago now and it is fantastically accurate ok we didnt see any snow here in south west Ireland not very surprising really still you did mention cold bursts which we have experienced and also you mentioned a mild run up to Christmas which we are experiencing it is very different from last winter which to be fair was not a winter at all!keep up the good work! Happy Christmas

  3. Michael says:

    EC 12Z tonight is looking good for cold next week. I really wouldn’t call for a mild, zonal pattern yet. Might be another shot of cold timed just in time for Christmas. Just saying. 😉

  4. DAVID says:

    Here is hoping for after Christmas then!!!

  5. eliott says:

    Hi mark there been lots of hype about cold coming in last week of November ,what are your thoughts on this ?

  6. Michael says:

    Very interesting forecast. If you’re on the right track, then we will be in for a heck of a winter here in Scandinavia. Although my country Denmark is the most southern of the scandinavian countries we sometimes have very frigid winters when the conditions are right and not being dominated by the Atlantic like in some winters. Back in the 1980’s most of the oceans around Denmark froze in some years and had it not been for the icebreakers we could have walked across the ice to Sweden. Today we just drive across the bridge;)

    Have a nice weekend!

  7. Robert says:

    Well done Mark!

  8. Karen says:

    Wow – well done Mark, a brave forecast. Fingers crossed! Everything is pointing to a proper Winter! 🙂

  9. John says:

    A couple of questions Mark… What will stop our worst enemy the Azores high setting up shop and staying put for the whole winter like last winter ???and if the STRAT has no sudden warming, will this mean all hopes for a cold winter what ever happens will diminish???? And finally can we have a coldish October, cold November, freezing December, fridget January and frozen February with no mildness what so ever ( an ice age perhaps???) could, looking at the whole picture could this be a real possibility?

  10. calum says:

    Sounds like we are in for, not a crazy crazy winter but a “good old fashioned winter” with decent cold events. I’ll take that 🙂

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