Over the past few months I am worked tirelessly to predict this upcoming winter and while you have received my initial thoughts and ideas, here is the final product: my official UK Winter Forecast 2012-13.
Courtesy of Mark Vogan
Whilst this forecast sets out how I anticipate this winter to be, I want to stress that this is the kind of winter that has tremendous potential for something special. However, we live in a part of the world where there can be a fine line between a bitter cold and a nothing special. This is what occurred last year. I have pointed out previously, what can go wrong with a forecast of this nature to show that there is no bias.
I have studied last year’s winter, trying to learn from it and understand what took place. In doing so, I hope that by learning from mistakes, this will help improve the accuracy of this year’s forecast. I firmly believe that this winter should be nothing like last year’s. For instance, the ocean temperatures are different, the mean ridges and troughs are different and our summer has been very wet. To reiterate the teachings of Joe Bastardi, where the wettest weather occurs during summer and autumn, the cold should go right to that very same area.
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11 Responses to Official UK Winter Forecast 2012-13
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Hello
Any update on Jan / Feb
hi Mark I know this was written over a month ago now and it is fantastically accurate ok we didnt see any snow here in south west Ireland not very surprising really still you did mention cold bursts which we have experienced and also you mentioned a mild run up to Christmas which we are experiencing it is very different from last winter which to be fair was not a winter at all!keep up the good work! Happy Christmas
EC 12Z tonight is looking good for cold next week. I really wouldn’t call for a mild, zonal pattern yet. Might be another shot of cold timed just in time for Christmas. Just saying.
Here is hoping for after Christmas then!!!
Hi mark there been lots of hype about cold coming in last week of November ,what are your thoughts on this ?
Got an important post I hope to have up in next couple of hours which focuses on late month, early Dec! Stay tuned.. Cheers.
Very interesting forecast. If you’re on the right track, then we will be in for a heck of a winter here in Scandinavia. Although my country Denmark is the most southern of the scandinavian countries we sometimes have very frigid winters when the conditions are right and not being dominated by the Atlantic like in some winters. Back in the 1980′s most of the oceans around Denmark froze in some years and had it not been for the icebreakers we could have walked across the ice to Sweden. Today we just drive across the bridge;)
Have a nice weekend!
Well done Mark!
Wow – well done Mark, a brave forecast. Fingers crossed! Everything is pointing to a proper Winter!
A couple of questions Mark… What will stop our worst enemy the Azores high setting up shop and staying put for the whole winter like last winter ???and if the STRAT has no sudden warming, will this mean all hopes for a cold winter what ever happens will diminish???? And finally can we have a coldish October, cold November, freezing December, fridget January and frozen February with no mildness what so ever ( an ice age perhaps???) could, looking at the whole picture could this be a real possibility?
Sounds like we are in for, not a crazy crazy winter but a “good old fashioned winter” with decent cold events. I’ll take that