Evening Thoughts On Sandy, US

While looking at the latest models on Sandy, the ECMWF remains stubborn in pulling Sandy into the Northeast/New England as a major, historic storm which would have potentially devastating consequences. The Canadian model has now jumped east in it’s track, joining for GFS.

Remember that a lot has to do with (1) the ridge in the west and the degree of amplification over the US which determines how much of a NEGATIVE tilt there is with that trough sweeping into the Eastern United States and (2) how far west Sandy is as it advances north off Cuba and off the Southeast Atlantic coast. That negative tilt is what would pull Sandy in as the trough digs down into the Southeast, ultimately making the Northeast a pitchers mit with Sandy being the ball.

When stepping away from the US pattern and trough timing, the key difference between the GFS and ECMWF is directly related to the storm and that is the ECMWF has it closer to the coast whereas the GFS has it further offshore and unable to be captured. The GFS forms a storm on the eastern side of the trough while Sandy is the southern storm but the ECMWF does not form a storm and ultimately Sandy is the northern storm.

As for the US pattern, the trough isn’t as deep or negatively tilted on the GFS and therefore, this forces Sandy to track NE and not NW. An option that can’t be completely ruled out. The ECMWF is respected more in a way with this situation compared to the GFS simply because it has a better track record.

Saturday way determine Sandy’s destiny

Saturday will be a crucial day and a fork in the road if you will as to what Sandy’s destiny may be and ultimately whether the Northeast US will or will not get struck by a major storm of potentially historic proportions or whether it breathes a shy of relief.

By the way, just to reiterate how incredible this pattern over the US is, IF the GFS were to be correct and it takes Sandy safely out to sea, it DOES STILL FORM A NOR’EASTER and could present a significant snowstorm to the interior Northeast so that is still on the table also.

Of course there is so much attention on this storm but I want to make sure your watching what’s happening across the US too.

Wild day for SOCAL on Monday

5 tornadoes were reported Monday in California which is the most for any day since the 1990s for the state. This was thanks a vigorous storm system which dropped 14″ of snow at Alpine Meadows in the Sierra Nevada near Tahoe and a lot of cold air and energy spinning aloft. This feature as it dug south, allowed tempeartures to heat on the east side of the Rockies.

Denver goes from warm to snow

Temperatures have been warm in Denver in recent days but the trough (seen in graphic below) is coming and so too is the snow!

Cold Plunge

80s push east

While the storm track east, causing the dip in the jet stream, look for soaring temperatures across the Plains again Wednesday with a focus on the Ohio Valley by Thursday and Eastern Seaboard by Friday. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some 80s showing up in the Mid-Atlantic States while a significant cool down arrives on the backside of the front for the very areas which will be running 20F above normal. Highs following the front may be stuck in thew 30s with snow falling.

 

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