Sandy Forms In Caribbean, Lots of Uncertainty Ahead

The computer models are still in large dissagreement over, now Tropical Storm Sandy which formed a few hours ago in the Caribbean and over the next 7+ days, everything will depend upon the pattern across the US and even out over the Pacific as to whether this storm remains at sea or whether it makes a direct impact on the East Coast.

It appears the GFS has LESS of a trough on the West Coast while there is more amplification on the ECMWF, this has influence of how much negative tilt there is with the eastbound trough swinging through the Ohio Valley by next weekend. The ECMWF also has Sandy crossing eastern Cuba and keeps it closer to Florida, the GFS is further east and looks more to miss that trough, stopping it from getting pulled in.

While the ECMWF has a slightly further east track from it’s earlier run, the model still takes the storm across Cape Cod as a weakening hurricane. Not only track but intensity is very uncertain at this time but the good thing is an actual storm has now formed and until that happens, we and models cannot capture a potential scenario.

Through Monday we had all sorts of doomsday scenarios for the East Coast with a major hurricane with pressure down below 964 mb crashing into Delaware Bay with all sorts of nightmares with rain, flooding, hurricane-force winds, storm surge and a 48-INCH snowstorm in the mountains of western PA. Nothing can be ruled out yet.

Over the next 7-10 days the modeling will probably shift back and fourth and I will continue to monitor this and post daily on this system. This has POTENTIAL to be an historic storm and it may also be nothing for the East Coast..

Stay tuned!

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  1. Karen says:

    I’m keeping a close eye on this as my husband is working in Fort Lauderdale at the moment. The problem is that this will be devastating if it hits land but by the time we find out whether it will actually happen it will probably be too late for a lot of people to prepare. Fingers crossed it will head East!

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