Warmth Next Week For US But Arctic Air Is Building Over Canada, Set To Plunge South Next Weekend!

Written by on October 20, 2012 in North and South America, United States of America with 0 Comments

While a warming pattern is shaping up for a large swath of the US next week, this will be triggered by a trough dropping into the Pacific Northwest. This trough dropping south into the NW builds heights from the Southwest through the Plains and across to the East. Temperatures could rise into the 80s over the Plains, perhaps stretching into parts of Missouri, Kentucky, maybe, even West Virginia late next week as the trough slides east. 70s should spread across Chicago to New York. As for Washington, Oregon and the Rockies, cold air pushing in with the next storm could bring sizeable snow totals to the mountains.

Early to mid next week’s setup will be a flip to what we have right now but through next week the storm driving into the PNW looks to cross the central Rockies and, like the system we’ve just, it too bombs over Minnesota or just north in Ontario. So that means, more strong to possibly hurricane force winds for the Dakotas and a cold front draped all the way down into the Southern Plains which presents a severe weather potential from Texas or Arkansas up through the Mississippi/Ohio Valley.

The difference though with next week is the fact that colder air drops down with the storm and may allow for a snowstorm across southern Canada and the Northern tier of the US (Montana across the Dakotas). The track is differing with the models and so a more southerly or northerly track would make the difference and would also make all the difference as to how far south and how cold the air coming down. The snowstorm would come nearer Friday of next week.

The ECMWF has been showing for about a week now, the prospects of an early season outbreak near the end of October into the start of November. The recent runs showed a bitter cold shot dropping into the interior PNW and Rockies early to mid next week but the latest runs show cold air filling southern Canada and then by NEXT WEEKEND, this arctic air dropping into the Northern Plains and eventually the Great Lakes.

The models will continue to jump around this idea but I believe it’s looking more and more likely that a blast of arctic origin air is looming for late month.

NAO shown to stay negative

The NAO is shown to hold strongly negative and the ECMWF suggests the evolution of a classic Greenland block by next weekend at the same time arctic air drops into the UK with a deep trough. This setup would point to a deepening trough over the Central US and eventually the East.

Right now the high is over Europe but if you look at the run through the next 10 days, that high migrates west, northwest crossing the UK Tuesday and Wednesday next week and by late week, once the high pressure pushing up towards Greenland, so the cold hammer drops into Scandinavia and the UK, so the US should see arctic air also.

Latest ECMWF shows development of a classic Greenland block by day 10

Check out these N Hemisphere upper charts off the ECMWF.

Here’s what the latest ECMWF has for North America. Note the warmth next week and by days 8-10, the arctic air dropping into the Northern Tier..


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