Prospects of Cold Is Growing For UK Late Next Week (Includes Video)

Written by on October 19, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

As it stands and going by the latest run and trend showing in the ECMWF, the high currently over eastern Europe will slide across the continent and reach the UK by early next week. While the pressure field adjusts across Europe, ARCTIC air builds to the north and is shown to bleed south thanks to building heights over the pole. There has been a lot of talk about the potential cold coming but I have been somewhat hesitant and not wanting to jump without seeing more and more evidence. The question is not so much whether the arctic air drops into the trough but where will that trough drop, how far east or west next week. Timing can be everything and it’s how fast the heights rise towards the UK and the connection of cold into the developing trough is that could determine two things, 1) when the cold arrives and 2) if it arrives at all to the UK. Remember, as heights build in the west of the continent early, so they lower over Scandi and the east, allowing the trough to drop, but where? How close to the UK?

As said now for the past few days, it’s once the high backs away from the UK out into the Atlantic that will allow the cold and trough to drift west and the latest ECMWF shows the ridge pushing through by mid next week and the cold and trough pushing in from the east late next week. An arctic NW flow is on the cards right now and snow down to low levels is possible IF this latest run is correct but between now and then, a lot can chance and likely will. The moral of this story is that the trend is going more towards the cold scenario and so worth partially buying into now.

Yesterday’s ECMWF showed the ridge holding longer over the UK and so the trough dropped further east. The arctic air will drop into the trough so that isn’t the question really.

Tonight’s new run shows the ridge sliding west from the UK quicker and so the trough drops south further west and over the UK.

Lets continue to keep an eye on this and remember that this is not the start of true winter. This will leave as quick as it arrived and for those banging on about a winter like last, will be quick to jump on the rapid return to mild. The feedback in the warm AMO with likely enhancement of a Greenland block will come but later on down the road, i.e. December and towards Christmas.

Stay tuned.

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