Warm & Settled Over Much of Europe, Heavy Rains From Spain to Finland

Written by on October 18, 2012 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

A huge upper ridge has expanded across the majority of the Europe which is allowing for calm weather and plentiful sunshine. With fairly strong heights aloft, temperatures are running widely 4-8C above normal, particularly where the SW winds are combined with sunshine, that is where you get maximum warmth. On Friday it will be the western interior’s turn for that maximum warmth, over eastern France and western Germany where that ‘drying’ southwest wind will be blowing ahead (east) of the boundary running around the dome of high pressure. That wind draws warmer air up from the western Med and North Africa. This setup will support daytime highs as warm as 22C in Paris Friday. While eastern Germany/western Poland was exposed to that SW wind yesterday with highs topping similar values, tomorrow will be cooler, as the high builds overhead and so the SW winds transfer west. Although it will be mild compared to normal, it will cooler than previous days. The sunshine combined with the SW winds allow the air to heat more. Without one or the other and at this time of year, there’s not a strong enough sun and high enough angle to support real warmth now.

Beneath the core of the high, while temperatures are above normal by several degrees during the day, the stagnant nature of the air mass means it warms as the air sinks beneath the sunshine by day but cools sufficiently by night through radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds. This is the perfect set up for fog formation, especially in sheltered valleys and with the lower angled, weaker sun, fog can be slow to burn off, slowing down the warming process. A drying and warming SW wind slows and restricts the nighttime cooling process and helps heat the air quickly once the sun is up.

Warmest Air Takes Aim At Parts of France, Germany Friday Into Weekend

Check out the latest upper charts off the ECMWF for the next few days below. Notice where the southwest wind is, just to the east of the isoobars which seperate the low over Ireland with the high which is centred back towards Poland. Now, notice how the oranges are where those southwest winds are. That’s because the model sees where the strongest area of ‘sinking’ will be, directly beneath the front right rear entrance region of the jet. Get yourself on the right side of a speed max, exposed to a fresh SW, drying, warming wind with good sunshine and your in near summer-like conditions in autumn!

The core of the high by next week will be positioned over the UK and so heights naturally lower over the eastern side of the continent but what will be interesting to see is whether a lobe of truely arctci origin air drops with the trough over Scandinavia or whether there’s a flattening out of the upper flow. There is a lot of things on the table to end this month and only time will tell whether we have an early blast of winter looming. Scandinavia certainly looks to turn very cold in the closing days of the month but whether that cold air expands over the heart of continent or not remains to be seen.

Heavy Rain Event From Spain to Southern Scandinavia, Flooding Is Likely In Areas

While it’s glorious across a large chunk of Europe, there is a distinct boundary between the two air masses and this presents a toruble area stretching from Northern Spain up through parts of France, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark across the Baltic Sea to southern Norway, Sweden and Finland. Expect heavy, flooding rains. The stalled nature and collision between conflicting air masses as well as an overriding jet stream, the ingredients are in place for a multiday heavy, flooding rain event. If you live in the areas mentioned, please pay extra attention your your local forecast.

You can see in the current radar off WeatherOnline the heavy rains streaming along the boundary. You know that where those rains are, that’s where the boundary is and the seperation zone between low pressure to the west and high pressure to the east.

Courtesy of WeatherOnline

Check out this pressure chart off the BBC.

Courtesy of the BBC

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