Warmest Air Since Mid-September Coming Next Week (Includes Video!)

Written by on October 18, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Courtesy of The Sun

I’ve been banging on about next week’s warmth since last Sunday and certainly that appears highly likely now but the question for next week is how much sunshine do we get because that will make all the difference as to how warm we get. If there is decent sunshine then I think 21C for London is very possible while 18-19C is possible somewhere in Scotland with a widespread 16C.

What’s interesting is how the run earlier today showed the ridge last throughout next week but tonight’s new run has it breaking down late week and arctic air pushing ever closer to the UK. For the few years some of you may have followed me, i’ve always said how important it is to not go by a single run and look at what the pattern is telling us. A trend says a lot but a single run says nothing. The persistency in the models shows the warmth next week and so that is what I am forecasting. As you’ll know, I’ve not jumped straight in with a cold late October/early November because I need more evidence to back this idea up and I am still not convinced but getting there given the way this pattern is evolving with the westward shift in the ridge which naturally supports height falls and a trough to drop into Scandinavia and eastern Europe.

Pressure rises over Northern Canada and Greenland support ARCTIC air pushing south and into the very trough we’re wanting to watch. I am wanting to see every run show that trough drop arctic air down over Scandinavia and then expand west as the ridge migrates west into the Atlantic.

The back and forth flip in the model over the past 24 hours reiterates the issues with forecasting these days. It’s tough when the NAO isn’t a particularly great guide and often isn’t at this transitionary time of year when the atmosphere is changing by the hour and day.

Ultimately I will say this much. Next week’s mild spell will happen and as stated already, it’s a question of how much sun and warmth we get. This is the mild spell I have been saying since August. Recall the idea that October should be the break in the super wet September and November but there would still be plenty of rain. That has certainly been the case in the last 72 hours but as to what comes beyond next week, it’s tough to say but the model does still show the trough and cold dropping into Scandinavia, a sign of a coming chill for the UK.

Here’s the very latest ECMWF charts which take us to the 26th.

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