Monster 1030+ Ridge Builds Over Europe, Tough Next 7 Days For UK, Then A Flip! (Includes Video!)

Written by on October 14, 2012 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 4 Comments

Well for those of you dying for some early season cold, I’m affraid your very unlikely to see it through the remainder of this month. This does coincide with my autumn ideas. Remember to keep in mind that given it’s a weak El Nino year.. In order for us to have a cold winter, we don’t want to see it arrive early and during October. For those who don’t look or understand. That by calling for an early taste of winter during an El Nino year is like wishing for a mild winter. As I’ve stated time and time again, during La Ninas, early winter is much more likely. El Nino autumns which tend to have colder October’s with snow, tend to bring noneeventful winters. A warm AMO tends to support stormier rather than colder but next month, I do recon we have a shot at some early winter but all in all, November, should be stormiest and could well be mildest. Also in my autumn forecast, I made a statement in which we could well see not only very wet conditions but also increasingly stormy conditions. Why, residual warmth lingers to the south well into November. Remember how warm the Med Sea is. Combine the SST and atmospheric warmth in the south with building cold to the north AND a warm North Atlantic, this is the perfect setup for major storm systems. This coming week should see the 1st of my 3 forecasted MAJOR storms this autumn. Another 2 should hit in November but in November, we need to watch out for backlash cold which could bring snows too.

Here’s the NCEP GFS 2-metre temp anomaly for Europe between the 18-23rd.

Courtesy of WeatherBELL Models

 

Courtesy of WeatherBELL Models

 

Courtesy of WeatherBELL Models

The real deal for both a Greenland block and and arctic air will come through seasonal transition and feedback.

I am not seeing any sign of winter through at least Oct 30 as both GFS and ECMWF shows monster ridging starting out over Eastern Europe with a trough which contains storms, not cold air. Then as that ridge backs west, we should see a warmer end to the month. Possibly a glimmer of Indian summer perhaps? That far out, it’s very tough to call but if anything, the later stages of the month looks to be either mild, settled or stormy and less likely to be wintry.

The question is how far west will that mighty ridge go. As you can see from the aboce charts I have put up for you, the latest GFS 5 day temperature anomalies shows temperatures 3-5C ABOVE NORMAL between the 22-27 October and although that doesn’t sound like much, that is over a 5-day stretch with the temperature averaged out.. However, I recon a cold blast is possible during EARLY November but before we get there, a mild spell is looking more likely once we get this week and the early part of next week out of the way. With all the storminess coming, we should average 1-3C below normal.

Here’s the Upper heights off the ECMWF

Here’s next Sunday.

Wed 24th, Notice the building heights further west!

Notice the ECM upper chart coincides well with the GFS 2 metre temp anomalies and surface pressure…

Fascinating Storm Situation Coming Up This Week!

Talk about hyper unsettled. What’s amazing looking at the charts is to a possible scanrio in which twin lows, in close to each other, literally spin or dance around each other on the spot, directly over the UK and Ireland from Wednesday through Saturday. The reason their doing that is simple, there’s a monster 1032 mb ridge building over a vast area of Europe so all these lows sub-980 mb can do, is dance around each other. Wouldn’t it be cool if this occurs. We may get the same two lows cycling around over top for about 3-5 days before they eventually find an escape route.

This scenario would make for a trough spell for the UK. What I think could be the case down here at the surface would be a long lived gale or at times, severe gales. This long lived wind event would take it’s toll on trees, buildings and even us humans. Ever stood out in a strong wind all day? It’s tiring right? Well IF this scanrio does take place, from LATE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, many parts of the country could see gales with some, seeing severe gales. Sustained winds ranging from 25-35 mph, gusting to 50, 60, 70, perhaps 80+, hour after hour, day after day.

To conclude, take a look at these pressure charts for later this week. Just look at stormy the UK/Ireland and Northeast Atlantic is and how strong the heights are over central and eastern Europe… Talk about a wild pattern!

To close this off. Take heart cold weather lovers…. It was Joe Bastardi who said back in 2009 to me, where the rains are in summer and autumn, that’s often where the cold goes for winter! Look at the next 7-10 days. Where’s wettest and where’s driest? Always keep that at the back of your mind when you see the nonesense some people come out with about this winter. These people don’t understand weather and often wishcast to suit their own agenda.

I am calling for a long and cold winter but it’s down to what I am seeing in the grand scheme of things and not because I WANT a cold winter.. In saying that I LOVE winter so I guess I do want one but it appears we should get one.

Stay tuned.

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  1. perry says:

    Just watch the video wow what a fantastic job well done. Keep up the good work looking forward to the winter forecast

  2. Penny says:

    ive never know the UK to have so many storms with little restbit each time goodness knows what winter will bring?i recon its gonna be severe and the UK got a shock coming!…..:)

  3. Penny says:

    Excellant post Mark

  4. perry says:

    Fantastic read hoping your forecasts stay true.

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